WHEN the July Uprising swept across Bangladesh, it was the workers, the invisible pillars of the nation鈥檚 economy, who paid the highest price. They marched for justice, raised their voices for dignity and faced tear gas and bullets in the hope of change.
Yet months later, their world remains eerily unchanged. Factories continue to close, wages remain unpaid and layoffs come without warning. The cycle of exploitation endures, masked by promises of reform that never reach the factory floors.
According to the Safety and Rights Society, 422 workers died in 373 workplace accidents in just the first six months of 2025. Of these, 267 were road accidents; others were caused by electrocution, lightning, falls, fires and explosions. Each number conceals a name, a family, a story. The uprising may have shaken politics, but it has yet to transform lives.
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Mirage called recovery
OFFICIAL optimism still colours government rhetoric. Following a February meeting of the advisory council, chief adviser鈥檚 press secretary Shafiqul Alam declared that 鈥榯he economy of Bangladesh has turned around and turned around well.鈥�
The Ministry of Finance鈥檚 report, Bangladesh鈥檚 Economy: Recent Challenges and Future Directions, presents itself as self-critical and transparent, acknowledging structural weaknesses. Yet beyond the polished language and glossy charts lies a starkly different reality.
For ordinary citizens, the much-touted recovery feels like a mirage on dry ground. Prices climb, wages stagnate and insecurity deepens. On paper, the numbers rise; in life, the struggle does not ease.
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Inflation refuses to retreat
INFLATION has become the cruellest tax on the poor, a daily punishment for simply trying to live. Though the interim government inherited this burden, its roots run deep, embedded in years of short-termism and misplaced priorities.
The previous administration鈥檚 repeated pledges to curb prices collapsed under the weight of politically motivated indecision. Now, Bangladesh Bank governor Ahsan H Mansur is pursuing a stricter monetary stance, aligning policy rates with global norms.
Yet progress is limited. The Finance Ministry concedes that 鈥榝ood inflation remains elevated primarily due to weaknesses in the supply chain.鈥� Until those weaknesses, from farm to market, are fixed, relief will remain out of reach.
The Ministry projects inflation could fall to 8 percent by June. But for families cutting meals and rationing essentials, that figure feels far removed from reality.
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Cracks beneath the surface
BEHIND the numbers lies fragility. Floods have ravaged crops, slashing Aush and Aman rice yields by over 1.3 million tonnes. Food reserves are now almost a quarter below target.
Electricity and fertiliser subsidies remain unreduced under inflationary pressure. The tax-to-GDP ratio continues to fall, and the banking sector is mired in non-performing loans. Ten banks are reportedly on the verge of collapse.
Foreign direct investment has plunged by more than 70 per cent in the first half of FY2024鈥�25, while labour unrest has worsened the picture. The Finance Ministry itself admits that violent protests, including those involving 40,000 Beximco workers, have shaken industrial stability. Factory closures and absconding owners have left thousands stranded.
The report concludes with rare honesty: labour unrest and financial instability are the most immediate threats to Bangladesh鈥檚 interim government.
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Hope flickers in shadows
THERE are still pockets of resilience. Export earnings and remittance inflows have stabilised foreign exchange reserves. Migrant workers sending money home continue to shoulder much of the nation鈥檚 burden.
But the history of remittance booms tells another story. In 2020鈥�21, inflows surged 36 per cent, not from strength, but because the pandemic disrupted hundi networks. Much of the illicit capital once escaping Bangladesh has already been siphoned abroad. Preventing another wave of capital flight must now be a priority.
True stability cannot rest on remittances alone. It must be rooted in fairness, through anti-corruption reform, tighter tax enforcement and zero tolerance for bribery and smuggling. Without integrity, progress will remain a house built on sand.
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What report doesn鈥檛 say
THE Finance Ministry鈥檚 report devotes attention to foreign inflows but says little about domestic investment or employment. Yet without local investment, foreign investors will not come.
Private sector credit is shrinking, imports of capital machinery are falling and industrial production is slowing. The politically driven 鈥�9-6 policy鈥� left a legacy of bad loans and discouraged entrepreneurship.
Today, business owners find themselves trapped in bureaucracy, uncertainty, and eroding law and order. Despite new commissions and task forces, confidence continues to wither.
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When law-order falters
RISING insecurity is eroding trust across the economy. Theft, robbery and mob violence are becoming commonplace in both cities and villages, leaving investors wary. When governance weakens, supply chains collapse and unrest festers.
Reform will only succeed when people can see and feel improvement. As former Internationally Monetary Fund official David Lipton once said, 鈥業t is not enough to do the right things; people must be able to see and feel the benefits.鈥�
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Chittagong鈥檚 factories fall silent
THE Chittagong Export Processing Zone, once a symbol of industrial dynamism, now tells a story of decline. Over the past ten months, sixteen factories have closed, displacing nearly 60,000 workers.
The Pacific Jeans Group alone shuttered seven factories, leaving 35,000 without work. A devastating fire earlier this year destroyed assets worth billions and left thousands more homeless overnight.
Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association data paint a grim picture: of Chittagong鈥檚 699 factories, only 341 remain operational. Former BGMEA vice president Rakibul Alam Chowdhury has called the situation 鈥榰nprecedented鈥�, warning that growing tension between owners and workers could soon make production unsustainable.
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Garment belt under siege
IN ASHULIA, the beating heart of Bangladesh鈥檚 garment industry, more than 200 factories were forced to close amid wage protests that turned deadly. One female worker lost her life in the clashes.
Workers demanded fair wages, annual increments and the right to organise. Many still earn below the Tk12,500 minimum wage announced last year. Their demands were initially dismissed as 鈥榩olitically instigated.鈥� By the time partial concessions came, the situation had spiralled out of control.
The Centre for Policy Dialogue found that the unrest stemmed from a 鈥榩rocedurally flawed鈥� wage determination process that deepened disparities between grades and regions. Beneath the turmoil lies a simple truth: when survival itself becomes uncertain, anger is inevitable.
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Factories fall in Gazipur
IN GAZIPUR, the pattern repeats. On May 20, 2025, Base Fashion Limited in Tongi announced an indefinite shutdown following protests over layoffs. Nearly 800 workers went on strike after a colleague was dismissed. The factory cited 鈥榰nrest and tension鈥� under Section 13(1) of the Labour Act 2006.
For the workers, the closure meant more than the loss of income, it meant the loss of stability in lives already on the brink.
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Brewing desperation
BEYOND the industrial belts, a quieter crisis brews in Bangladesh鈥檚 tea gardens. Around 150,000 workers are directly employed in the sector, with half a million more depending on it indirectly.
At least 31 estates are struggling to pay wages; five have already closed, and many others operate at half capacity. Tea worth around Tk2,500 crore is traded annually, with a total sector turnover exceeding Tk10,000 crore. Yet production is falling, liquidity has dried up, and some now fear Bangladesh may soon have to import tea, a reversal of national pride.
The Bangladesh Tea Association blames high interest rates, often above 13 per cent, and the denial of agricultural loan facilities that other farmers enjoy at just 4 per cent. Even the government鈥檚 minimum price floor of Tk245 per kilogram in Sylhet and Chattogram, and Tk170 in the north, has failed to ensure profitability.
Despite a sector-wide default of only Tk10 crore, banks remain reluctant to lend. 鈥榳ithout low-interest loans, many more gardens will shut down soon,鈥� warned Tea Association President Kamran Tanvirur Islam.
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Searching for way forward
ON MARCH 11, 2025, the Ministry of Labour and Employment launched a toll-free Workers鈥� Helpline (16357) to handle grievances and monitor unrest. Such initiatives are welcome but merely scratch the surface of a deeper wound.
What Bangladesh needs now is not temporary relief but structural renewal. Trust between workers and owners must be rebuilt through fair dialogue and transparent grievance mechanisms. Industrial safety must be treated as non-negotiable, with strict enforcement of fire and building standards.
At the same time, displaced workers need emergency employment and retraining programmes. For sectors like tea, loan policies must be restructured to restore liquidity and sustainability.
Without comprehensive reform, Bangladesh鈥檚 two great engines of growth, garments and tea, risk grinding to a halt. The result would be more than an economic slowdown; it would be a humanitarian crisis, unravelling decades of hard-earned progress.
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Nafew Sajed Joy is a researcher and writer.
