¶¶Òõ¾«Æ·

THE macroeconomic outlook of a country can be projected quantitatively through a large number of economic tools applied on a plethora of variables. However, the numbers do not always reflect the real truth hidden behind the projections. More importantly, the projections often make realistic assumptions, which hold a number of explanatory variables fixed at their current levels over the period of time for which the projection is done. Therefore, it is only rational to interpret these numbers with caution. In addition, the expectation theory suggests that outcomes do not deviate from expectations in a systematic (ie, regular or predictable) manner. It indicates the fact that the general mass can predict what is likely to be the future performance of an economy and the reality does not significantly vary from their predicted outcomes. This theory, however, does not overlook that people may make prediction errors. But, has the intuition rooted in the fact that those errors will never be persistent. More interestingly, when a collective expected outcome becomes deeply rooted in the belief system of the general population, their individual actions will also reflect such belief eventually driving the economy towards that predicted outcomes anyway.

In view of these, we have taken an attempt to outline what is expected to happen in different economic dimensions in this country both quantitatively and qualitatively. The quantitative segment will offer a quantitative forecast of different relevant macroeconomic variables and the qualitative findings will offer a short summary of a recent survey conducted by the BRAC EPL Investments Ltd on around 30 investment experts to reflect the future outlook of the major macroeconomic variables. Let us start with quantitative analyses.

The first forecast is related to the foreign exchange reserve of the country. Sophisticated quantitative model indicates that the by June 2026, this figure is likely to reach at $23 billion. This figure now moves around $31.43 billion. The following figure indicates the probable trend of this important macroeconomic variable in the coming days:

The second projection is about the exchange rate between the dollar and the taka. The economic projection model puts the projected dollar-taka exchange rate at $1 = Tk 132.05 by the end of this fiscal on June 30, 2026. The trend, as shown in the figure below, indicates an amazing upward trend indicating towards a rather a fast depreciation provided that the current trend continues. However, the management of exchange rate by the Bangladesh Bank may not allow such a deep depreciation as the model suggests. Only time can tell if that turns out to be the case.

The projection after this is about the inflation rate of the country. This is a crucial variable to look out for provided the capacity of this variable to affect all the other variables mentioned above.

Despite the fact that the existing inflation rate moves around 8.55 per cent (in July 2025), it is expected that this rate will drastically come down to 7.20 per cent in view of the existing policy stance of Bangladesh Bank. However, it is essential to remember that there is an election coming up in the year 2026 and expenditures normally tend to increase during elections with a potential to pull this figure up (from its projected level) causing a sudden rise in overall demands for goods and services prior to and right after the election. In addition, if the policy stance of the central bank changes in December 2024, as is expected to happen, this figure may see a slight upward movement keeping it between 7.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent.

Remittance is also likely to see a smoother upward trend in the days to come. As the economic projection model shows, this figure might reach $30.98 billion on June 30, 2026. The 2025 July figure of remittance shows that it is around $24.78 billion. Therefore, the projection is clearly indicating towards a brighter future in earning foreign remittance into the country. This projection is very well in line with the global growth forecast of the world economy in 2026. The IMF projects that the global economy may be growing at 3.1 per cent in the coming year supported by easing financial conditions and fiscal expansions. In addition to these, it is also expected that an easing financial condition often spills over to the developing economies. Therefore, the likelihood of this number to become a reality is rather high.

The projected total export revenues are $54.86 billion. Achieving these predicted export revenues will result in a 13.63per cent increase in exports from the previous fiscal year. The government’s export objective appears to be slightly more optimistic when compared to this prediction. The export target for fiscal year 2025–2026 is set at $63.5 billion. While the aim is lofty, the projection clearly predicts a brighter future. A 13.63 per cent growth prediction is surely something to celebrate, even if the target is not met and actual earnings just match the projected percentages. However, it is critical to recognize that any political or social disturbance can jeopardise accomplishing this goal. Because 2026 is an election year, there is a likelihood that some form of social or political turmoil will emerge during this time, affecting the expected growth of the economy in this dimension. As a result, it is critical that the government take necessary measures to protect the interests of the export industries, as well as to provide smoother transportation services and enough security in these businesses, in order to maintain the economy operating at its projected level.

We only present projections for export earnings, remittances, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, and inflation because these are the primary macroeconomic variables that frequently influences the country’s fate. Looking at these expected statistics, it is clear that the economy is likely to perform well in the future. However, effective inflation and exchange rate management areÌýessential to ensure that the predicted figures for export revenues and inflation are met. A strong campaign to attract foreign direct investment is also vital to ensure that the predicted downward trend can be corrected upward.

Bangladesh has an underdeveloped equity market and we can hardly find any projections related to its performances here. We attempted to see how this market may perform in the coming year with the assumption that there will not be any major policy shifts and other major unfavorable events affecting the overall economic environment of the country. The projections are shown below:

The projections related to DSEX index indicates that there is a possibility that will see a steady upward movement reaching around 5,712.04 points on June 30, 2026. An expected rate cut along with downward movements of the yields from the Government securities creates a stronger possibility for a better performing equity market. A recent statement from the Governor of Bangladesh Bank indicates that the central bank may reduce the policy rate once the inflation rate comes down below the 7 per cent mark. The projections of inflation rate shows that the inflation rate may come down to 7.20 per cent by the end of June next year (2026). Therefore, a policy rate cut is likely to take place after that. An expectation of this rate cut may have a prior effect on the equity market causing it to see an upward movement in the months to come. The reasons may include a reduced cost of capital, higher valuation of the securities due to a lower discount rate, shots from bonds to stocks, a rebuilding of consumer confidence, and other relevant factors.

While the quantitative forecasts have already painted a nice and rosy picture, it is essential that the expectation of the professionals is also incorporated with it in order to understand how the overall economy may perform in near future.

The Mid-Year Economic Survey 2025, conducted by BRAC EPL Investments Limited among 30 investment professionals, reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bangladesh’s economy in the second half of the year, supported by easing global commodity prices, a stronger foreign reserve position and expectations of supportive monetary policy adjustments.

Most respondents appear cautiously optimistic about Bangladesh’s macroeconomic direction for the remainder of the year, with expectations across key indicators reflecting a gradual return to stability rather than sharp swings. A majority — 58 per cent — foresee inflation easing to between 8 and 9 per cent by December, while 38 per cent expect it to slip below 8 per cent. They attribute this prospective moderation chiefly to a weakening in global commodity prices, an improved foreign-reserve buffer, and a favourable base effect after two years of elevated costs. On the exchange rate, opinion is split: 41 per cent expect the taka to stabilise in the 120–124 range against the dollar, whereas just over half — 51 per cent — see it settling between 125 and 130, suggesting a general belief that reserves will remain steady or strengthen enough to support only a modest depreciation. The monetary stance is also expected to shift, with 59 per cent predicting that Bangladesh Bank will cut policy rates at least once before year-end, signalling a tilt towards supporting credit expansion and lowering borrowing costs. In the government securities market, 31 per cent expect the 364-day Treasury bill yield to remain within 10.5–12.5 per cent, while two-thirds (66 per cent) think it will drop below 10 per cent, a view shaped by assumptions of stable prices and softer demand for funds. Credit to the private sector is projected to grow by 7–9 per cent according to 76 per cent of participants, although several caution that political uncertainty and corporate wariness may temper borrowing even if rates decline. Liquidity in the banking system is widely expected to improve, with 48 per cent pointing to subdued loan demand and higher foreign inflows as key drivers. Finally, investment appetites reflect a balance between caution and confidence, with preferences evenly split — 48 per cent each — between government securities and equities, implying a measured but steady faith in the market’s near-term prospects.

Once we incorporate both the quantitative and the qualitative predictions, it is almost certain that the likelihood of a better performing economy can be expected in the next year by the end of this fiscal in June, 2026. However, there are several causes of concerns. These causes range from sudden effects of internationally unfavorable and unforeseeable events to affect local economy (such as war, natural calamities, etc), an unprecedented and unexpected level of inflationary pressure building in the developed economy (the probability of that is very slim), sudden policy shifts in the labour and immigration policies around the globe, social and political unrests in the country before, during and after the election, natural calamities such as heavy flood or drought which has the potential to pull the prices of foods upward, a sudden supply shock caused by shutting down of businesses suffering from cash flow and profitability crises (which is the case for many SMEs right now primarily due to a very high borrowing rate and low accessibility of working capital finance), lack of confidence of the foreign investors due to policy uncertainty and a fear of lack of policy continuation following the changes in the political landscape following the election, among others. Therefore, the policymakers must start taking sufficient steps to ensure that a smoother transition of power takes place and major policies (particularly the ones surrounding foreign investors) remain unchanged despite the changes in the political arena of the country. At the same time, effective inflation targeting and prudent exchange rate management are essential tasks on hand, which must never be overlooked despite the political and policy priorities of the country during the election in 2026.

Ìý

Md Kamrul Bari is an affiliate assistant professor at the UCSI University Bangladesh branch campus. Shah Rakib Khan is a senior assistant vice-president and Saba Shrabasty Habil is an analyst at the investment banking department at BRAC EPL Investments Limited.