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UNLESS there is some major political upheaval, the general election for the national parliament is expected to take place in February next year. The chief adviser to the interim government has repeatedly given assurances to this effect in his speeches, which is certainly welcome news. It appears that he is considering conducting the election in the same manner as in the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth countries, a system long practised in this region. We may call this the ‘Conventional Constituency-Based Direct Election System,’ or simply, the ‘Conventional System’.

However, a significant political faction is calling for the introduction of the Proportional Representation (PR) system, which has gained some recognition in the country. This group is not only demanding the PR system but has also warned of a possible movement to press their case. The group includes parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamic Movement of Chormonai, and the newly formed NCP. Yet, this demand has not evolved into a broad-based public movement.

At present, the largest political party, the BNP, is firmly opposed to the PR system. The party’s acting chairman, Mr Tarique Rahman, has stated: ‘Considering Bangladesh’s current realities and geographical context, I request everyone to think about how suitable this system would be for our country.’ Senior leaders of the BNP have rejected the PR system outright and made their position clear in the National Consensus Commission. As the country’s largest political party, the BNP’s stance must certainly be taken seriously by all concerned.

That said, there are some advantages claimed by proponents of the PR system. For example, it is argued that PR would make politics more inclusive, give smaller parties greater importance, and ensure their representation in parliament. It is also believed that elections would be more peaceful, and by-elections would no longer be necessary. Supporters of PR, relying on the ‘goodwill’ of political parties, hope that it will lead to more equitable representation, good governance, and economic growth. Yet, if we trust in the political parties, it is equally reasonable to believe that the existing conventional system can also deliver equitable representation, inclusivity, good governance, and economic growth.

As a politically aware citizen, I am concerned that elections under the PR system may drive Bangladesh’s governance into serious crisis. Several issues may emerge that could create significant problems if PR is adopted. The most important are:

Incompatibility with the region’s political and electoral history: While the region’s democratic history may be neither long nor free from difficulties, there is nonetheless a tradition of democratic elections. Even in Bangladesh’s electoral history, several relatively acceptable elections can be found. The PR system, however, is inconsistent with this history and tradition. This does not mean we must always cling to tradition. With sufficient justification, or in the face of popular demand, we may adopt a new system. Yet PR supporters have not advanced convincing arguments, nor has their cause become a mass demand.

Possible decline in public interest in elections: As PR reduces area-based representation, people are likely to lose interest in elections. It is not unreasonable to expect voter turnout to fall sharply under PR. This would bode ill for Bangladesh’s political system. A decline in public engagement may, in Bangladesh’s context, foster conditions favouring long-term autocracy. That is precisely why autocratic governments are often averse to active public involvement in politics.

Increase in nomination trade: In PR, parties assign parliamentary seats according to their vote share. This opens scope for trading seats. As candidates would not need to contest and win in open elections, wealthy individuals could purchase their way into parliament. Over time, genuine politicians might be displaced by business elites, leading to a parliament filled with moneyed interests rather than political leaders. This would damage democracy and the political system.

Unpopular representatives in parliament: Under PR, individuals with little chance of winning in the conventional system could nonetheless be placed in parliament by their parties. The presence of such less popular figures would undermine parliament’s ability to represent the people’s will.

Complications for independent candidates: As PR allocates seats based on a party’s nationwide vote, it would be virtually impossible for independents to contest. Yet Bangladesh has a history of independents winning seats. Denying them this opportunity would in effect strip citizens of their political rights.

Weak coalition government: In Bangladesh’s electoral history, the winning party typically secures only 35–40 per cent of the total vote. Under PR, the largest party might secure only 105–120 seats out of 300. To form a government, it would then depend on smaller parties. In the present political climate, this would be almost inevitable. Consequently, the largest party would be forced to accept demands from minor parties, which could obstruct governance and administration. Moreover, smaller and more extreme parties might become kingmakers — posing risks for the state.

Unstable government system: For the reasons outlined above, PR is likely to result in fragile coalition governments. Such governments can easily become hostages to minor coalition partners. If a small partner does not get its way, it can bring down the government at any time. This would make stable governance very difficult. Countries with PR often provide examples of unstable governments. While wealthier nations may absorb this instability, in Bangladesh it could have disastrous consequences.

These seven flaws in PR are unavoidable. A parliament that is less representative and produces a weak, unstable government is not suitable for Bangladesh. The structure of parliament and the system of government should never be treated as an experiment. There is no evidence that the public desires such an experiment. The National Parliament to be formed in February’s election should therefore be based on the conventional system. The responsibility of the interim government is to ensure that the election is free, fair, and impartial. Moreover, the government formed through this election must make it a priority to ensure future elections are conducted under the same impartial conditions, by adopting constitutional safeguards. Regular, fair elections remain one of the most effective means of preventing autocracy.

But will smaller parties, which may not win seats or secure sufficient numbers to make an impact, have any influence in the parliamentary system after 2024? Will parliamentary politics in Bangladesh after the July uprising of 2024 simply continue along the same lines as before? Surely, no one wishes that. The good news is that almost all active political parties in Bangladesh have agreed on an important reform: the introduction of a bicameral legislature. This would allow smaller parties to gain representation, at least in the upper house. However, parties differ on how this upper chamber should be constituted. One side favours proportional representation based on lower house results, while the other prefers direct elections. Both positions have strong arguments. If formed under PR, the ruling party would almost certainly be in the minority in the upper house. If through direct elections, the ruling party would surely retain its majority — making the outcome predictable and the exercise potentially meaningless.

In this situation, the best approach would be to find a middle path, one that does not pre-determine the ruling party’s majority or minority status in the upper house. Politicians and analysts can work together to develop such a solution. As a politically aware citizen, I have already proposed such a system, which was published in ¶¶Òõ¾«Æ· on April 9, 2025 under the title ‘Constitutional Reform: Designing an Inclusive Senate.’ Interested readers may refer to that for further details.

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Dr Mostofa Nazmul Mansur is a professor of philosophy at Jahangirnagar University.