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The monsoon set in all over Bangladesh on June 3, days before normal, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department announced on Monday.

‘Monsoon marks the change in the direction of wind,’ meteorologist Hafizur Rahman told ¶¶Òõ¾«Æ·.

The arrival of the monsoon is the arrival of southerly wind, which picks up a lot of moisture as it travels over the Indian Ocean towards Bangladesh and India.

Interrupted by the Himalayas on its way, the wind ends up giving rain.

The monsoon is also reminiscent of the immediate past hot summer, which paved the way for the southerly wind to blow over the landmasses of Bangladesh and India by heating them up, giving rise to a heatwave.

The onset of the monsoon occurs gradually as the band of southerly air travels huge distances. Usually, there are several days of distance when the monsoon first arrives in Teknaf, Bangladesh’s southernmost point, and overtakes the whole of Bangladesh.

Only in two years in the past four decades since 1981 did monsoon grip all of Bangladesh as early as June 3 in 2022 and 2004.

The earliest monsoon onset all over Bangladesh was recorded on May 26 in 2009. The monsoon of 1999 set in over Bangladesh on May 29, the second earliest onset of the monsoon, the rainy season extending between June and September.

The earliest monsoon onset coincided with the year’s severe cyclonic storm Aila that hit Bangladesh.

‘Cyclonic storm Remal spurred the onset of the monsoon this year,’ said meteorologist Bazlur Rashid.

Cyclonic storm Remal made landfall between the Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts on May 26, continuing to give precipitation, up to 300mm in 24 hours, for days as it tracked a long way before dissipating over the Indian state of Assam on May 29.

Heavy to very heavy rain has continued in parts of Bangladesh and India ever since Remal hit, leading to flash flooding in Sylhet that has continued since May 30.

‘The time of monsoon arrival does not correlate with the amount of rain it is bringing,’ said Bazlu.

The monsoon is the most important time of year, for it brings 80 per cent of the annual rain in Bangladesh and India, replenishing groundwater reserves, supplying plenty of water to irrigate crops, ending excessive summer heat, and therefore promising to boost the economy.

A good monsoon could bring down inflation and help economies, particularly those in Bangladesh, by reducing electricity consumption.

The monsoon also brings floods, insects, diseases, and waterlogging to cities. But people still cherish it, pray for it, and romanticise it.

The monsoon also has spiritual and psychological significance, as it inspires all forms of art. A raga in Indian classical music, Malhar, is dedicated to the monsoon.

Forecasters at the BMD said that the monsoon has been rather weak so far and might take two more weeks to become stable and fully appear in its nature, bringing spells of rain over the days.

Weather forecasters in both Bangladesh and India have predicted above-normal rainfall this monsoon. Plenty of rainfall is what makes a good monsoon.

The India Meteorological Department predicted that this monsoon could bring 6 per cent more rain than the long-term average.

The forecast of more rain can be dreadful for Bangladesh, particularly because India arbitrarily releases water through its numerous barrages built on the vast catchment of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna basins.

These three river systems in Bangladesh drain massive runoff from 1.6 million square kilometres. Bangladesh constitutes less than 8 per cent of the catchment areas of these river systems.

Over the years, monsoons have rather become more of a bane than a boon because of water management issues.

While cross-border arbitrary control of natural waterways made floods more frequent, the building of infrastructure blocking water bodies complicated matters even more. 

‘Global warming is also influencing the monsoon in unexpected ways,’ said meteorologist Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik.

Some of the last monsoons, including the one in 2023, were rain-deficient, he said. 

Last monsoon, farmers had to artificially dig ponds to meet the demand for water for their crops.

The need to spend more, especially on activities that require imported energy, hurt Bangladesh’s economy, increasing the need to use more of its depleting foreign reserves.

The last monsoon was rather drought-like and fell at the time when studies revealed that the poor, hit hard by inflation, especially food, dropped protein from their menu and curtained other essential expenses such as education and medical.

Last monsoon, people offered prayers for rain, seeking divine intervention to end their misery.

Bangladesh’s agriculture, which employs about 45 per cent of the labour force, depends overwhelmingly on the monsoon for its productivity. Agriculture accounts for about 11 per cent of GDP. 

A study released by the BMD earlier this year revealed that heatwaves became more frequent during monsoons, particularly after 2010, extending through September.

More heatwaves during the monsoon imply the presence of more dry days and fewer wet days. Heatwaves, on the other hand, in the pre-monsoon month of March were substantially reduced, revealed the study covering the timeline between 1981 and 2023.

‘The monsoon is crucial for our crop production. The arrival and withdrawal of the monsoon need to be carefully observed,’ said Bazlu.

There were years when the monsoon onset was delayed until the third week of June. In 1986, the monsoon set in over Bangladesh on June 21.

Monsoon withdrawal, on the other hand, occurs mostly in October.

‘A simple change in monsoon could warrant rescheduling the crop calendar or taking special measures to prevent economic downfall,’ said Bazlu.