Fresh spells of rain in October have triggered fears of yet another surge in dengue cases across Bangladesh, particularly in Dhaka city where infections and deaths remain high.
Entomologists warned that light to moderate rain combined with favourable temperatures and humidity was creating ideal breeding conditions for Aedes mosquitoes, carriers of dengue.
They cautioned that the current rainfall pattern could prolong the outbreak, which has already made September the deadliest month this year.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department on Thursday forecast that light to moderate rain would continue throughout the next week.
Meteorologist Sara Sultana said that at the end of the next week, rain would decline gradually.
鈥楻ain at regular intervals with moderate temperatures is the most suitable condition for mosquito population growth,鈥� said AM Zakir Hussain, an epidemiologist and former director of the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research.
He noted that the average temperature 鈥� about 27C 鈥攁longside fresh rainwater stagnation was allowing Aedes mosquitoes to hatch and survive longer.
鈥楧engue usually peaks in July, but this year rain continued in September. We fear that cases will not come under control immediately and may only begin to decline from late October,鈥� he warned.
National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine entomology department head professor Md Golam Sharower stressed that only larval control could prevent further escalation.
鈥業f agencies can kill the larvae before hatching, the results will be good. But if the mosquitoes start flying, the situation will worsen not only in Dhaka but also in the other districts,鈥� he said.
The Directorate General of Health Services reported two more dengue deaths and 396 new hospitalisations in the 24 hours ending at 8:00am on Thursday.
With the latest figures, dengue deaths this year have climbed to 202, while hospitalisations have reached 48,228 since January.
Public health experts say that the actual toll is far higher, as the DGHS compiles figures only from selected hospitals.
According to DGHS data, September registered 15,866 hospitalisations and 76 deaths, the highest monthly toll so far in 2025.
In just two days of October, four deaths and 886 hospitalisations were reported.
Monthly admissions show a sharp escalation from mid-year 鈥� 1,161 in January, 374 in February, 336 in March, 701 in April, 1,773 in May, 5,951 in June, 10,684 in July, and 10,496 in August.
Fatalities followed a similar pattern, with 41 deaths in July and 39 in August, after single-digit figures in earlier months.
Experts remain critical of mosquito-control drives.
鈥榃e now wait for dengue to go away naturally,鈥� said Touhid Uddin Ahmed, former chief scientific officer at the IEDCR.
It subsides naturally with the onset of winter, but agencies and city corporations have failed to act effectively.
Dhaka South City Corporation鈥檚 acting chief health officer Nishat Parveen acknowledged that cases were still climbing.
鈥楨very day we see new dengue patients. We are doing our best with the facilities available, but public awareness and treatment are key to reducing infections,鈥� she said.
Residents, however, continue to report irregular or no anti-mosquito activities in many areas of Dhaka, undermining official claims of intensified drives.
Dengue has become one of Bangladesh鈥檚 most persistent public health crises since the first major outbreak in 2000, which left 93 people dead and over 5,500 hospitalised.
The country saw its worst outbreak in 2023, when dengue killed 1,705 people and hospitalised 3,21,179 鈥� more deaths than the combined toll of 853 reported between 2000 and 2022.
Another severe outbreak was in 2024, killing 575 and hospitalising more than one lakh.
