The theme of this year’s International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, observed on October 13 — Fund Resilience, Not Disasters — should resonate powerfully in Bangladesh. For us, this is not merely a slogan; it is both an economic and moral imperative. Positioned at the confluence of the mighty Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, and facing the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is a textbook example of tropical synergy creating chronic disaster vulnerability. Year after year, our people face a relentless assault from rapid-onset shocks such as cyclones, landslides, storm surges and devastating monsoon floods, alongside creeping, slow-onset threats including drought, persistent heatwaves, severe river erosion and debilitating salinity intrusion.
This continuous cycle of destruction carries a staggering price tag. According to United Nations data, disasters between 2000 and 2023 cost Bangladesh over $13.6 billion and affected more than 130 million people. This figure only scratches the surface of the human cost — which includes an estimated 38 million children exposed to extreme heatwaves alone over the past year, according to Save the Children, and more than 5 million children affected by recent major flood and cyclone events, as reported by UNICEF. Lost hope, interrupted education and the perpetual state of rebuilding represent a debt we cannot repay. Despite significant legal advancements, our current system remains dangerously biased towards paying this post-disaster bill rather than preventing it.
Ìý
The problem of the old paradigm
BANGLADESH has made genuine progress in institutionalising disaster risk management. We have strong national policies in place, including the Disaster Management Act 2021, the Standing Order on Disaster 2019, the National Plan for Disaster Management 2021–2025 and the recent National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy 2024. These documents lay the groundwork for a proactive approach. Through the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and the Department of Disaster Management, the government has established national and district disaster management funds.
However, a critical loophole persists in practice, as highlighted by expert analysis: most of these funds are still strictly earmarked for post-disaster relief and rehabilitation. District-level committees, which are the first line of defence, are often required to wait until the damage is visible and confirmed before they can access and mobilise funds.
This hesitation is rooted in a rigid, outdated fiscal system. Local officials, fearing accusations of wasting public money, are reluctant to spend funds in advance — especially as resources not used within the fiscal year are often required to be returned to the treasury. This creates a false economy, where the fear of ‘wasting’ a few thousand taka on preparedness leads to spending millions on clean-up and recovery later. The system inadvertently incentivises reaction over readiness, contradicting the very spirit of ‘Fund Resilience, Not Disasters’.
Ìý
Forecast-based financing: the game-changer
THE antidote to this reaction-focused system is anticipatory action, which systematically links early warnings to early financial action. Anticipatory action is more than just common sense; it is sound fiscal policy. Global studies have shown that every dollar invested in anticipatory action can save up to seven dollars in subsequent post-disaster spending. This includes reduced reliance on emergency aid, quicker infrastructure repair and less need for long-term rehabilitation.
One of the critical mechanisms of anticipatory action is forecast-based financing, which is crucial for Bangladesh’s current disaster management phase. Forecast-based financing is an ex-ante mechanism that pre-approves and automatically allocates funding once a reliable forecast trigger is reached, allowing for action before the disaster fully strikes. However, anticipatory action financing encompasses a range of instruments beyond pure forecast-based financing, including pre-arranged finance, regional risk pools and multi-hazard insurance products, all designed to ensure that the necessary capital is immediately available when specific forecast thresholds are met.
Bangladesh has not merely talked about anticipatory action; it has pioneered its implementation across diverse risks. Collaborative efforts involving the FbF/A Taskforce, AATWG, DDM, BMD and development partners have seen significant anticipatory action activations ahead of major hazards. For instance, anticipatory cash transfers have been successfully deployed via mobile money to coastal communities before cyclones such as Remal, and to riverine communities ahead of monsoon floods. Crucially, development partners successfully activated the Early Action Protocol for Heatwaves in Dhaka, delivering cooling centres and emergency drinking water to vulnerable populations.
For hazards such as landslides in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, anticipatory action is increasingly being integrated with high-resolution rainfall forecasts to support unconditional cash transfers and the dissemination of location-specific special early warnings. Furthermore, pilot projects for drought are utilising forecast-based financing to distribute climate-smart farming packages, such as drought-tolerant seeds, protecting agricultural livelihoods long before crop failure sets in. These funds allow vulnerable families to secure livestock, purchase essential food and water purification supplies, and physically secure their homes and documents, significantly mitigating losses and safeguarding livelihoods.
Ìý
Empowering the local experts
THE path forward requires bold administrative and political commitment. We need to empower and trust our local authorities. The rigidity in fund allocation must be dismantled by issuing clear, centralised guidelines that give District and Upazila Disaster Management Committees the authority to spend pre-approved funds based on forecast thresholds provided by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. This ensures that the technical expertise of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre is immediately translated into decisive action on the ground.
Furthermore, leveraging technology is vital. A real-time, transparent digital monitoring system for disaster fund management will build trust, reduce misuse and, most importantly, provide decision-makers with instant evidence of where anticipatory spending is most effective.
Another untapped opportunity is the integration of anticipatory action with the country’s vast network of social safety net programmes. By using existing beneficiary lists, we can deliver pre-approved cash transfers and targeted support — such as unconditional cash, multi-hazard insurance, dignity kits for women or priority evacuation support for the elderly — directly to the most vulnerable households when a threat is imminent. This approach not only provides immediate relief but also protects the long-term development gains achieved through poverty reduction efforts.
Finally, the role of non-governmental organisations and humanitarian partners is paramount. They often act as the implementers of last-mile delivery, helping to bridge the gap between national policy and community needs. By partnering with the government on community-driven projects, they ensure that anticipatory action remains community-led. The people who live in high-risk areas are the true experts; when they are trusted and supported, their response is faster and more appropriate, forging a true sense of ownership and accountability. Addressing hazards such as landslides requires anticipatory funding to pre-position longer-term resilience assets, such as reinforcing vulnerable slopes, conducting awareness campaigns in high-risk villages and pre-positioning emergency shelter materials well ahead of the monsoon season.
The ‘no-regret principle’ must become the standard. Strengthening a flood shelter, pre-positioning relief supplies or providing cash transfers are worthwhile investments even if the storm changes course. They bolster preparedness, reinforce public trust and enhance day-to-day resilience.
Disaster management in Bangladesh should no longer be defined by the scale of the damage we endure, but by the readiness we demonstrate. Shifting the funding balance — to spend more before disaster strikes, not just after — is the ultimate way to honour the strength and resilience of our people. By embracing forecast-based financing, we move decisively from coping to true resilience, ensuring that every Taka spent is an investment in a safer, stronger future. This is how Bangladesh wins against the disaster crisis.
Ìý
Mohammad Abu Toyab is a development professional.
