THE climate crisis is no longer an impending threat discussed in distant scientific circles rather it has arrived and is reshaping the world before our eyes. From unprecedented wildfires and deadly heatwaves to erratic monsoons and rising seas, the effects of global warming are now part of our lived reality. These events are not coincidental; they are being driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions, most notably carbon dioxide (CO鈧�), released through the burning of fossil fuels. Despite years of scientific warnings, international summits and ambitious declarations, global CO鈧� emissions remain at alarmingly high levels.
At the heart of international efforts to confront this crisis lies the 2015 Paris Agreement, a historic accord in which nearly every country pledged to limit global temperature rise to well below 2掳C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5掳C. Yet, nearly a decade later, that target is slipping out of reach. A new study conducted by the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management, recently published in the journal Springer Nature, presents troubling evidence that most of the world鈥檚 biggest carbon emitters are not on track to meet their climate commitments. Using sophisticated machine learning techniques and decades of data, the researchers forecast future emissions of the 11 highest-emitting countries, and their findings should concern us all.
The countries examined are China, the United States, India, Russia, Japan, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, South Korea and Germany which collectively account for the lion鈥檚 share of global CO鈧� emissions. If these nations fail, the world fails. According to the study鈥檚 projections, with the notable exception of Russia, most of these countries will fall well short of meeting their self-declared emissions reduction targets by 2030. Even more concerning is that in some cases, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, emissions are projected to increase substantially which in fact is effectively moving in the opposite direction of climate goals.
Each country鈥檚 emissions trajectory is shaped by a distinct mix of domestic realities. China, the largest global emitter, continues to grapple with the challenges of balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Despite commendable investments in renewable energy, its continued reliance on coal, especially in heavy industries like steel and cement undermines its climate progress. India, another emerging giant, faces a similarly complex landscape. While it has made headway in solar energy expansion and policy formulation, its energy sector remains heavily fossil-fuel dependent. Enforcement of environmental regulations remains inconsistent, and energy access for rural populations continues to take precedence over sustainability.
In North America, Canada鈥檚 emissions are driven by high per capita energy consumption, a reliance on energy-intensive industries, and insufficient policy enforcement. South Korea, a technologically advanced economy, still relies on a carbon-heavy industrial base and faces similar policy inertia. The United States, while having made strides in reducing coal use and scaling up renewable energy, remains challenged by high transportation emissions, political polarisation, and a fragmented regulatory environment that hampers swift national progress.
Even Germany, often seen as a global leader in climate policy, is not immune to difficulty. Despite of aggressive investments in wind and solar energy and is phasing out nuclear power, it continues to rely on coal during periods of energy shortage. Storage and grid integration of renewable energy remain technological bottlenecks that must be resolved for sustained impact.
In contrast, Russia stands out in the study for outperforming its climate targets. This progress is attributed to several factors, including increased reliance on nuclear and hydropower, structural changes in its economy, and policy shifts that have enhanced energy efficiency. Yet, it is crucial to note that Russia鈥檚 emissions reduction is also partly influenced by economic stagnation and demographic decline, factors that do not offer a replicable model for other nations.
The most alarming trajectories, however, belong to Iran and Saudi Arabia, two Middle East nations heavily reliant on oil production. The study predicts that, unless urgent corrective measures are adopted, Saudi Arabia鈥檚 emissions could rise by over 16 per cent by 2030. Iran shows a similar upward trend. In both cases, the absence of strong domestic climate policies, coupled with the economic centrality of fossil fuels, has made climate action politically and economically difficult.
Despite the horrid forecast, the study offers a measure of hope. It does not merely present a problem; it outlines clear, actionable recommendations tailored to each country鈥檚 unique context. For instance, it suggests that China expand its carbon market and enhance emissions standards for heavy industries. India could accelerate the adoption of clean cookstoves, invest in rural solar infrastructure and introduce stricter fuel efficiency norms. The United States, the world鈥檚 second-largest emitter, is urged to modernise its electricity grid, expand offshore wind development and strengthen federal climate legislation.
For countries like Indonesia and South Korea, the pathway includes greater investment in clean technologies and robust legal frameworks for climate governance. Even oil-rich states like Saudi Arabia and Iran have opportunities to reduce emissions through diversification of energy sources, solar energy expansion, modernisation of power infrastructure and increased cooperation with international climate finance mechanisms.
Yet, the most critical insight from the BIGM study is this: technology alone cannot deliver the change the world needs. It is governance, political will and multilateral coordination that will ultimately determine whether the world meets or misses its climate targets. We know what needs to be done. The science is unequivocal, and the tools are within reach. What is lacking is the urgency and leadership to implement transformative change at the scale and speed required.
With just five years left until 2030, the milestone year by which many of the Paris Agreement targets must be met, the window for meaningful action is narrowing. The implications of missing these targets are not abstract. They include rising sea levels inundating low-lying nations like Bangladesh, widespread food insecurity, mass displacement and the potential for climate-fuelled geopolitical conflict. The costs of inaction will not be measured only in economic terms, but in human lives and lost futures.
This study is a clarion call, not a death sentence. Forecasting is not about accepting a predetermined future; it is about changing course before it is too late. If we act now, with resolve and coordination, the world鈥檚 largest emitters can still realign with their climate promises. But the time for hesitation has long passed. In the face of an accelerating crisis, complacency is no longer a neutral stance, it is rather complicity.
The challenge before us is immense, but not insurmountable. What is required is bold, evidence-based policymaking, reinforced by international solidarity and a shared commitment to preserving a liveable planet. The alternative is not merely a warmer world; unfortunately it is a more unstable, inequitable and dangerous one. We must not let that be our legacy.
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Arju Manara Begum and Mahadee Al Mobin are research associates at the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management.
