¶¶Òõ¾«Æ·

THE enduring rivalry between India and Pakistan, marked by four major wars in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999 and countless skirmishes along the Line of Control, entered a new phase with India’s Balakot air strike in 2019. India’s Surgical Strike and Pakistan’s retaliatory Operation Swift Retort led to critical shifts in their military dynamics. After six years both the countries once again came on the brink of a ‘fifth war.’

India and Pakistan fought a tit-for-tat exchange predominantly in the air, Operation Sindoor and Pakistan’s Operation Bunyan-ul-Marsoos, in May 7–10. Besides exposing military hardware, both the operations further underscored how both nations have evolved their strategies since 2019. Pakistan’s asymmetric agility, tactical nuclear deterrence and hybrid tactics exposed new challenges to India’s conventional superiority.

The most discussed event in these operations was the loss of a couple of combat aircraft while airborne within own territory and could be a couple of hundred kilometres away from the disputed border. Claims and counter-claims of losses in the air and on the ground were cluttered with misinformation and disinformation making facts opaque.

Fifteen days after the militant attack on tourists at Pahalgam in Kashmir, India at night on May 7–8 launched punitive air strikes against nine targets in six cities in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. India used long-range cruise missiles, including air launched BrahMos, without entering Pakistan’s air space. The primary objective of India’s attack seemed more of conveying a resolve about India’s military prowess and the ability to retaliate and strike deep inside Pakistan.

Pakistan responded swiftly. In the predawn counter-offensive, Pakistan claims to have shot down six of India’s fighter aircraft. Five over India-administered Kashmir and one over Indian Punjab that include three French-made Rafale jets. India has had huge embarrassment at Pakistan’s claim of shooting down aircraft. India neither denied nor confirmed immediately after Pakistan’s claim. Indian chief of defence staff Anil Chauhan on the side lines of Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, May 30–June 1, admits to have lost fighter jet in Operation Sindoor without specifying the number.

During a seminar organised by Air Marshal Suryadarma University in Indonesia on June 10, an Indonesian aerospace expert mentioned that the Pakistan Air Force shot down five fighter jets including three Rafales, one MiG-29, one Sukhoi-30, a tactical drone and degraded two S-400 launchers. Captain Shiv Kumar, India’s defence attaché to Indonesia who attended the seminar, responded saying, ‘I may not agree with him [Indonesian aerospace expert] that India lost so many aircraft. But I do agree that we did lose some aircraft and that happened only because of the constraint given by the political leadership to not attack the military establishments and their air defences.’

According to the Hindu online April 30, 2025, Indian prime minister affirming that it is India’s ‘national resolve to deal a crushing blow to terrorism,’ said that the Indian armed forces had his full confidence and ‘complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing.’ Therefore, the defence attaché’s claim that the ‘loss of some aircraft happened only because of the constraint given by the political leadership to not attack the [Pakistan’s] military establishments and their air defences’ is not well founded.

According to Pakistan military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, all planes were downed inside the Indian territory. Military conflict also triggered information war in which India and Pakistan traded conflicting allegations and claims, but they both agreed on one fact that aircraft from neither side crossed into the other’s territory during the attacks.

In subsequent days till May 10, both India and Pakistan exchanged tit-for-tat missile strikes and drone attacks on each other’s territory until a ceasefire was announced by the United States president Donald Trump on May 10. Trump insists to have brokered the ceasefire but India contradicted Trump’s claim. However, Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar and Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri confirmed the ceasefire shortly after the announcement. The US-negotiated ceasefire came as a sigh of relief for both the sides.

Both the countries have advanced their military capabilities since 2019. They showcased advanced military hardware and electronic warfare capabilities highlighting their precision-strike capabilities. However, India’s reliance on the Rafale, MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30 jets without appropriate electronic counter-measures revealed vulnerabilities as Pakistan claims to have shot down several of the aircraft using beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles and most advanced electronic warfare systems. Pakistan’s asymmetric agility was evident in its discrete use of hybrid tactics, including drones and electronic warfare to degrade India’s S-400 air defence systems. Pakistan’s ability to down Indian jets within Indian territory suggested superior electronic warfare and radar-jamming technologies in inventory.

Operation Sindoor demonstrated India’s conventional superiority, deep-strike capabilities with advanced missile systems. The use of BrahMos missiles conveyed deterrence. Pakistan’s asymmetric tactics, including Electronic Warfare and beyond visual range engagement target locking capacity, effectively countered India’s conventional edge. Swift retaliation and claims of downing five fighter jets including Rafales and its confirmation by Indian military bolstered Pakistan air force’s deterrence narrative. But dependence on hybrid warfare may not sustain prolonged conflicts and dependence on nuclear posturing risks escalation beyond control.

The conflict revealed both nations’ evolving military capabilities-India’s conventional strength with deep-strike potential and Pakistan’s effective hybrid tactics supported by advanced electronic warfare systems which caught Indian air force by surprise. The conflict also exposed their critical weaknesses: India’s operational constraints and Pakistan’s sustainability challenges in a prolonged conflict. The confrontation showed that neither side could achieve objective without ‘unacceptable level of potential losses’ while demonstrating Pakistan’s growing capacity to counter India’s conventional military edge. The balance of power is shifting, but within limits defined by mutual vulnerability.

Ìý

Mohammad Abdur Razzak is a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy and security analyst.