THE recent earthquake in Myanmar has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis in the war-torn region bordering Bangladesh. The 7.9 magnitude earthquake that struck the Sagaing region of Myanmar on March 28 has resulted in the death of more than 5,000 people and the destruction of more than 120,000 houses as well as thousands of sites related to religion, schools and government buildings. The affected population is nearly 17 million, surpassing that of the Dhaka city. The disaster has split Myanmar socio-economically nearly in a half and caused extensive damage from the north to the south. The country, already facing a severe humanitarian crisis as a result of extended military governance and widespread civil unrest, is now confronted with a natural disaster that has intensified the existing challenges. This situation has brought Myanmar to a critical juncture, which seems to be exceedingly difficult for an undemocratic and unpopular regime to manage.
The earthquake has further exacerbated the ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar. Despite the junta鈥檚 declaration of a ceasefire, numerous attacks have been reported, indicating that hostilities persist during this humanitarian crisis. According to the Democratic Voice of Burma, between March 28 and April 5, Myanmar鈥檚 military airstrikes resulted in the death of 68 individuals across the Karen, northern Shan, Bago and Sagaing regions. The People鈥檚 Defence Force, a rebel group operating in various provinces of Myanmar, announced a partial ceasefire for two weeks, beginning on March 30.
However, on March 31, the junta conducted an airstrike in Singu Township, Mandalay, injuring several residents and destroying their houses. This violation of the international law, occurring amidst a humanitarian crisis triggered by a significant natural disaster, demands serious attention from the international community. Additionally, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which is composed of three distinct rebel factions in Arakan and Shan states, declared a partial ceasefire on April 1. Nevertheless, that same evening, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing expressed his intention to continue military operations against the anti-junta coalition, asserting his belief that this alliance is preparing for future assaults.
The military has also been accused of obstructing and diverting foreign aid from opposition-controlled territories to more neutral zones. Recently, the Guardian has reported that a medical team led by two Australian doctors accused the junta of blocking international aid to the most affected region of Mandalay and confiscating relief items without any valid justification. Besides, much of the delivery of the aid to the affected zones is heavily dependent on military logistic supplies. The report also states that the military is using logistical challenges as an excuse for failing to deliver aid to rebel-held areas.
This situation indicates that the dynamics of the Myanmar civil war are becoming increasingly complex and precarious. It has already brought Myanmar to a critical juncture. The junta must recognise that the current crisis has created an opportunity for peace and reconciliation in Myanmar, which they should leverage in favour of the country鈥檚 sovereignty. In this reconciliation process, they must seek assistance from the international community. The Malaysian prime minister has announced plans to meet Myanmar鈥檚 junta leader to advocate for an extension to the ceasefire between the military government and rebel groups. The United Nations has also proposed a humanitarian channel through Bangladesh, which has sparked political controversy both in Bangladesh and the surrounding region.
Studies on disaster diplomacy indicate that during a critical juncture, military-controlled relief operations often serve as a tool to suppress communities that are already marginalised and disloyal to the military. The military uses relief efforts as a diplomatic and strategic weapon to undermine opposing forces. For example, the Sri Lankan government exploited the 2004 tsunami disaster by restricting the flow of aid and rehabilitation measures, which ultimately escalated tension between the government and the rebel group, the LTTE. By 2008, this strategy effectively dismantled the resistance of the rebels in Sri Lanka.
On the contrary, there are several other studies that explain how natural disasters, as external shocks, create opportune moments for conflict resolution in various countries throughout history. A notable example is the Aceh conflict in Indonesia, where, after six months of a devastating earthquake and a massive tsunami that struck the Indian Ocean region in 2004, commonly referred to as the Indian Ocean Tsunami, a peace agreement was reached between the Aceh liberation forces and the Indonesian government.
The development occurred because the Indonesian government recognised the importance of de-escalating conflicts by reallocating resources that had previously been designated for military actions against separatists. Furthermore, they understood the widespread public sympathy for the victims, which resonated across the nation. Both the government and rebel groups found it essential to establish temporary cooperation and cease hostilities to ensure that aid reached those in need. Additionally, the Indonesian government acknowledged that they could not sustain this cooperation without international intervention. Consequently, they engaged Finland and ASEAN in the dialogue and, ultimately, within six months of the disaster, both parties agreed to sign a permanent peace accord.
The earthquake highlights the junta鈥檚 strained relations with international donors and its tight controls over affected areas, raising concern about its ability and willingness to support survivors. It is important to acknowledge that this disaster has exposed Myanmar鈥檚 vulnerabilities in managing national crises while simultaneously presenting a significant opportunity for the military junta to alleviate the prevailing tensions within the nation. The only viable option available to establish long-term peace may be the use of disaster diplomacy, a strategy designed to restore trust and authority. Any deviation from this approach is likely to result in further fragmentation in Myanmar in the coming days.
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Muhammad Asiful Basar ([email protected]), a senior lecturer at the North South University, is a doctoral candidate, Institute of Development Policy, University of Antwerp, Belgium.
