BANGLADESH is a country prone to a number of natural disasters. The country is affected by numerous disasters such as cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides, lightning strikes and river erosion because of its unique hydrological and geomorphological realities. Also located at the bottom of the GBM (the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna) basin and bounded by the Bay of Bengal in its south, Bangladesh has become highly susceptible to multiple hazards. Due to vulnerable and extreme socio-economic conditions, these disasters lead to the loss of lives, damage to infrastructure, and adverse impacts on the livelihoods of the people. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Bangladesh is ranked the seventh most vulnerable country to extreme disasters, having already lost almost US$ 15 billion in the last two decades. Alongside human-induced hazards, climate change and unplanned urbanisation trigger the situation to worsen.
Landslides have become a recent phenomenon in the southeast part of Bangladesh. Along with hydro-meteorological disasters, landslides occur in hilly terrain regions due to torrential monsoon rainfall between June and September, and anthropogenic activities across the slope caused this new phenomenon of disaster in Bangladesh. But the disaster was a less-noticed hazard in this region until June 2007, when attention started being drawn to the severity of the landslide after a devastating incident in Chattogram City that took 129 lives. In 2012, landslides affected 10 districts in the northern and south-eastern parts, killing 139 people. In 2015, floods and landslides killed 19 people and caused further displacement.
The maximum number of deaths was reported in 2017. Massive landslides triggered by extreme rainfall in Rangamati, Bandarban, and Chattogram took about 176 lives. A study showed that during the years 2000鈥�2022, 727 deaths, including 54 children, and 1017 injuries were caused by landslides in Bangladesh. The historical record of landslide events reveals that on average, 19 landslides occur annually in the country, an increase of 4 per cent each year. So, this year, there is an optimum chance for such a hazard to occur due to natural factors and human activities from June to September.
Bangladesh has made a strong commitment pledged in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015鈥�2030), the Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements and charters to reduce multi-hazard disaster risk and vulnerability. To respond to multi-hazard disasters, the government enacted the Disaster Management Act, 2012 and promulgated a wide range of policies, orders, and strategies. But still, the country is sixth out of 89 countries in terms of the number of people exposed to multiple hazards, which translates to 10 per cent of gross domestic product exposed to disasters per year 鈥� the highest in the world.
The existing disaster management system in Bangladesh is more reactive than anticipatory. But now, globally, it is proved that every dollar invested in early action saves seven dollars in response, which will enhance disaster preparedness for effective response and 鈥楤uild Back Better鈥� in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. To reduce the number of deaths, missing persons, and persons affected by disasters and direct economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product, anticipatory action is now a game changer.
Anticipatory action is acting ahead of a predicted hazard to prevent or reduce the impacts on communities before they fully unfold. Anticipatory action leverages a window of opportunity between when an early warning or forecast is available and a full-blown crisis, using pre-positioned resources and plans to take protective action for communities. Anticipatory action acts as a bridge between disaster risk reduction, preparedness and crisis response, which can save lives and livelihoods, mitigate suffering, improve the effectiveness of response and recovery and, importantly, better preserve the dignity of communities.
Bangladesh confronts an escalating vulnerability to natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Despite strides in mitigating floods and cyclones through disaster preparedness and anticipatory action, hazards like landslides remain critical threats. An effective anticipatory action mechanism for hazards is absent. Landslides in the south-eastern part are now becoming a recurrent hazard and are classified as an emergent national threat. A school of thought in the field of disaster risk reduction stated that landslides are not only caused by natural factors but also highly associated with anthropogenic factors such as indiscriminate hill cutting, destruction of hill forests, environmental degradation, unsustainable urbanisation, cultural barriers and a lack of good governance. To mitigate the highest level of socio-economic loss from landslides, anticipatory action can play a pivotal role.
Anticipatory action establishes early warning dissemination, which will take actions to mitigate the humanitarian impact on children and communities through the preparedness of multiple stakeholders, including the government. By using an early warning system, communities, especially governments, can see the widow of opportunity to act ahead of crises and take early responses to disasters. Anticipatory action also provides forecast-based action by which authorities can move the inhabitants from the hill to a safe shelter before the torrential rainfall happens. To build resilience, anticipatory action focuses on a community-based disaster preparedness system that acts from pre-disaster preparedness to post-disaster recovery. Anticipatory action engages the community to build capacity for an early warning system and improve local management capability for infrastructure maintenance and operations, as well as to contribute strategically to national policies.
The monsoon is approaching, and about half a million people are still living on the risky hilly terrain of the south-eastern part of the country. It is high time to update disaster preparedness and contingency policies with the core ideas of anticipatory action. Because anticipatory actions maintain and strengthen people-centred multi-hazard, multisectoral forecasting and early warning systems, disaster risk and emergency communications mechanisms, and hazard-monitoring technologies through a participatory process. To reduce the death toll and economic loss, the government must evolve from reactive humanitarian disaster management approaches to anticipatory action.
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Mohammad Abu Toyab is a development professional.
