Faced with anaemic growth and strained public finances, Britain鈥檚 Labour government no longer shies away from pinning the blame on Brexit, as it prepares for a difficult budget likely to include unpopular tax rises.
How has the rhetoric changed?
Labour politicians bent over backwards not to mention Brexit as their party swept to power in last year鈥檚 election in a careful attempt聽to avoid alienating voters who had backed leaving the EU at the 2016 referendum.
But in recent weeks, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has accused the previous Conservative government of having negotiated a 鈥榖otched Brexit deal鈥�, while health minister Wes Streeting said he was 鈥榞lad that Brexit is a problem whose name we now dare speak鈥�.
Finance minister Rachel Reeves, who will present her budget on Wednesday, has called the impact of Britain鈥檚 departure from the bloc 鈥渟evere and long-lasting鈥�.
She believes it has contributed towards weak growth, which slowed to 0.1 per cent in the three months to September, high inflation of 3.6 per cent in October, and a public deficit of about five per cent of GDP.
The change in rhetoric is part of the groundwork for justifying the expected tax increases, which will follow last year鈥檚 rises that the Labour government attributed to a multi-billion-pound 鈥榖lack hole鈥� left to them by the Conservatives.
What is the estimated economic impact of Brexit?
The Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain鈥檚 spending watchdog, estimates that Brexit will ultimately reduce the size of the UK鈥檚 economy by about four percent and reduce trade by 15 percent.
It has said that new trade deals signed with countries since Brexit 鈥渨ill not have a material impact鈥�.
鈥業nsofar as Brexit has made the economy less open to trade, that will have a negative effect for a period,鈥� Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last month.
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King鈥檚 College London, told AFP 鈥楤rexit has clearly damaged the UK economy,鈥� emphasising that it had worsened confidence and investment, and contributed towards 鈥減ersistently weak鈥� exports.
He added however that years of austerity, convoluted planning systems, and regional disparities have also contributed to slow growth.
He also noted that France, Germany and Italy have similar growth trajectories, so 鈥楤rexit alone cannot be the main explanation.鈥�
Starmer wants deeper relations with the bloc but has pledged not to return to the single market, customs union or free movement.
London and Brussels said earlier this month they were set to begin formal negotiations on an agreement to ease the trade of food and agricultural products, which could ultimately strengthen the British economy.
Is Brexit a political risk?
The recent shift in tone by senior government figures likely 鈥榬eflects confidence among ministers that a clear majority of voters believe Brexit was an error鈥�, former prime-ministerial adviser Patrick Diamond told AFP.
An Ipsos survey published in June found that 54 percent thought Brexit was the wrong decision for the UK, compared to just 32 percent who thought it was right.
A YouGov poll released the same month indicated that 61 per cent of Britons now consider Brexit to have been a failure and that 56 per cent wanted to rejoin the EU. The surveys have led commentators to talk about 鈥淏regret鈥�.
For Chris Hopkins, director of polling firm Savanta, the anti-Brexit noise is also 鈥榓 direct response鈥� to one of the leaders of the leave movement, Nigel Farage, whose anti-immigrant Reform UK party is leading Labour by double-digit margins in opinion polls.
鈥業t might not win Labour-to-Reform switchers back, but it does create clear space between the parties and the leaders,鈥� Hopkins told AFP.
鈥楢nd Labour knows that in many cases it may need to rely on voters from other parties to help it stop the prospect of a Reform-led government.鈥�
