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Europe could struggle to mobilise enough troops or quickly produce enough weapons in case of a direct confrontation with Russia, a new report warned Tuesday.

The French Institute of International Relations, a top think tank, highlighted Europe’s weaknesses in the event of a high-intensity conflict with Russia, which the authors describe as ‘a long-term threat’.

Europe needed to demonstrate political will and ‘a coherent defence economic strategy,’ said the ‘Europe-Russia: Balance of Power Review’ report.

‘We need to identify our strengths and weaknesses,’ IFRI director Thomas Gomart said, pointing to ‘critical military gaps’.

‘European countries have the necessary potential, that is the economic resources, military capabilities, and technological know-how to stand up to Russia by 2030, provided — and this is obviously the most important word — that they demonstrate political will,’ he added.

EU countries have upped military spending in a bid to contain a menacing Russia since Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Although Europe enjoys an advantage over Russia in aerospace and at sea, its land forces suffer from ‘critical shortfalls in depth and ammunition stockpiles’, the report said, also pointing to Moscow’s experience in mobilising troops in the nearly four-year war against Ukraine.

‘There are reasons to doubt the political, strategic and operational availability of a number of European troops in the case of a confrontation scenario, given the political fragmentation and serious readiness issues,’ the report said.

‘As of 2025, 20 out of 30 European NATO or EU members have professional ground forces of fewer than 15,000 troops,’ said the study, produced with the support of a steering committee of European think-tank directors.

‘Apart from a few frontline states that could mobilise reserves and national guards on their soil, the others would be unable to generate more than a couple of battalions to be sent away from their borders,’ the study added.

The bulk of large unit formations would rest on the shoulders of ‘maybe six countries,’ including France, Britain and Germany.

Europe has also struggled to translate increased military spending into a ‘tangible industrial surge’, the report said, pointing to the missile sector as an example.

Average annual orders placed with European defence firms have usually been in the low hundreds for offensive weapons, and in the low thousands for air and missile defence interceptors, it said.

‘Such orders paint a dire picture of European missile production capacity,’ the report added.

‘It is vastly inferior to what a military confrontation with Russia would require.’