I AM rarely surprised by anything Trump says anymore. There is no lie too transparent to stop him — remember ‘sunny’when it was overcast? Or his absurdly erroneous claims that he ‘ended seven wars,’ including conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Forget that Armenia (which Trump previously confused with Albania) and Azerbaijan have not yet ratified a deal. Just last week, on October 14, 2025, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan reaffirmed that constitutional reform is an internal matter and that Armenia will not accept Azerbaijan’s demands as a precondition to any treaty. Yet Trump proudly declared he had ended this ‘un-endable war.’
Trump’s ceasefire theater in Gaza is not unique in its grotesque self-service, though it is exceptionally dangerous. Accuracy and accountability matter. We have seen premature ‘mission accomplished’ declarations and exaggerated optimism too many times before.
Since the fragile US-brokered truce came into effect on October 10, Israel has killed nearly 100 Palestinians and wounded 230 in Gaza, Al Jazeera reports. Over days of accusation and counteraccusation — trust comes from making and keeping agreements, not being forced into them. Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire on unarmed Palestinians and launched airstrikes despite the ceasefire — do we even have one? The latest was on Sunday, when Israel claimed Hamas fighters attacked its soldiers in Rafah — a zone under Israeli control. The Israeli military said two soldiers were killed, accusing Hamas of violating the agreement before launching a ‘massive and extensive wave’ of strikes across the Strip.
Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, denied involvement, which they frequently do; noting it has no presence in Rafah and no contact with fighters there. This was not the only time Hamas has been accused of violating the ceasefire. Israel has also said Hamas is dragging its feet on returning the bodies of 28 captives killed during Israel’s own bombardment of Gaza.
This is the backdrop against which Trump has been boasting about his supposed ‘peace deal.’ What he calls a triumph of diplomacy is, in reality, a fragile pause repeatedly ruptured by violence — one that has neither stopped the killing nor met the humanitarian needs of Gaza’s civilians. When nearly 100 Palestinians are killed during a truce negotiated under US auspices, calling it ‘peace’ isn’t just misleading; it is morally indefensible. Trump’s deal, like so many of his foreign policy gambits, is less about resolution than performance — another chance to claim victory while others pay the cost in blood.
By contrast, the Biden administration’s negotiated ceasefire, while still imperfect and fragile, has been rooted in multilateral coordination and humanitarian oversight. It involves ongoing monitoring, UN facilitation, and aid delivery mechanisms designed to prevent the rapid breakdown seen under Trump’s watch. Biden’s approach reflects the sober reality that peace cannot be declared by press release — it must be maintained through trust, accountability, and sustained humanitarian access. Unlike Trump, Biden never claimed to have been the one who brought lasting peace to the Middle East.
Yet the contrast also underscores a deeper truth: in Gaza, words like ‘deal’ and ‘truce’ are only as meaningful as the lives they protect. So long as violence continues under the guise of restraint, claims to peace ring hollow. Trump’s gambit — his showy, self-serving approach to negotiation — was never about ending bloodshed, only about staging it as a win. It is the theatre of diplomacy without its substance, a hollow performance that mistakes applause for victory.
Trump’s pattern of claiming credit for work he did not do is consistent. He has declared ‘victories’ that never existed, whether in foreign conflict, domestic policy, or pandemic response. In Gaza, this pattern has real human consequences. The UN Development Program estimates Gaza’s damage at $70 billion, with $20 billion needed in the next three years alone. For comparison, USAID’s 2023 budget request — before Trump gutted it — was around $38 billion. Photo-op diplomacy and airdropped aid do not meet the actual needs of civilians on the ground.
Doctors Without Borders has welcomed a ceasefire, but they continue to call for an end to the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe. They report treating paediatric burn victims, children injured by bomb blasts, boiling water, and fuel fires in makeshift shelters. History teaches the same lesson repeatedly: Israel and Hamas have signed ceasefires in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2021, all of which collapsed. Threats of retaliation, coercion, and theatrics are not diplomacy — they are a recipe for repeated failure.
Trump is claiming a victory that does not exist. The only thing he’s done that earns him credit was to push for a release of the 20 remaining living hostages, but it’s looking more and more like a ploy to get something Israel wanted and get Trump the high praise he heaps upon himself, not the grand achievement he claims.
He has placed his political needs ahead of humanity. It is a gambit — an attempt to secure a win despite enormous risks. Rigorous studies of peace accords show measurable differences: loosely worded agreements are far more likely to fail because of suspicion, room for interpretation, and distrust. The lack of timelines, accountability structures, and enforcement mechanisms in Trump’s announcement contrasts sharply with Biden’s more empirically grounded approach.
Even the logistics are implausible. Gaza is flattened — 70-90 per cent of its infrastructure destroyed — making promises about hostages and aid delivery nearly impossible to implement. Pledged aid rarely reaches civilians in need, and Hamas’ supposed disarmament remains a mirage. The global aid system is already strained, weakened by budget cuts and the rise of authoritarianism worldwide. Premature victories are the only kind Trump can claim. His administration thrives on stagecraft, not statecraft.
Ultimately, this gamble erodes US credibility in peacebuilding. Declaring peace for headlines while violence continues undermines both moral authority and practical leverage in conflict resolution. Sustainable peace requires honesty, accountability, and a commitment to the lives of those affected — not applause, not political theatre. Trump’s Gaza gambit is a stark reminder that real peace cannot be staged; it must be built, brick by brick, with truth and trust as its foundation.
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CounterPunch.org, October 22. Wim Laven has a PhD in International Conflict Management, he teaches courses in political science and conflict resolution, and is on the Executive Boards of the International Peace Research Association and the Peace and Justice Studies Association.