BANGLADESH has long been familiar with the wrath of nature. Nestled in the low-lying delta formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the country endures relentless exposure to floods, cyclones, landslides, and the slow erosion of riverbanks. These threats are not new, but climate change has lent them a sharper edge. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 places Bangladesh seventh among nations most affected by climate change in the last two decades, a ranking that starkly reflects the country鈥檚 mounting vulnerabilities.
While disaster preparedness has seen notable improvements over the years, the state鈥檚 financial strategy still overwhelmingly leans toward post-disaster response and recovery. In principle, this is understandable; responding to immediate human suffering is a moral and political necessity. Yet, this reactive model is neither economically sustainable nor sufficient in a future of more frequent and intense climatic shocks. Bangladesh must now reimagine its disaster risk financing approach, shifting decisively from responding after the fact to preparing in advance.
Over the past two decades, Bangladesh has faced more than 200 natural disasters, impacting the lives of over 100 million people. These events come at a staggering cost. According to the World Bank, the country suffers an average annual economic loss of around $1 billion due to natural calamities. Cyclones alone caused damage amounting to $16 billion between 2000 and 2020. The 2022 Sylhet floods provide a sobering illustration: more than 7.2 million people were affected, and the cumulative damage to agriculture, infrastructure, and housing soared into the hundreds of millions. Yet, more than 75 per cent of government disaster-related spending in 2020鈥�21 went toward post-event relief and rehabilitation, as noted by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. In this context, such spending is akin to paying for a fire brigade without ever installing smoke detectors.
The case for early action, often termed anticipatory action, rests on clear logic and growing evidence. It involves taking targeted steps before a disaster strikes, based on credible forecasts and risk analyses. These steps can include cash or food distribution, pre-emptive evacuations, shoring up vulnerable infrastructure and pre-positioning supplies in high-risk areas. Far from being speculative or experimental, this approach is now well-established. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reports that every dollar invested in early action can save up to six dollars in future humanitarian expenditure.
A 2020 pilot initiative under the UN鈥檚 Central Emergency Response Fund in Bangladesh underscored the value of acting early. The project reached 200,000 people with cash transfers and hygiene kits before anticipated flooding. As a result, many evacuated in time, safeguarded their livestock and belongings, and avoided widespread illness. These outcomes were achieved at a fraction of the cost of what traditional post-disaster aid would have required.
Despite such evidence, anticipatory action remains marginal within both global and national humanitarian funding landscapes. Less than one per cent of global humanitarian financing is currently allocated to early action. In Bangladesh, anticipatory initiatives remain mostly donor-led, lacking full integration into state policy and financial systems. This presents a structural weakness. Local government bodies, those most immediately responsible for frontline responses, often lack the timely access to flexible funds that such interventions require. Early warning systems are in place but cannot fulfil their potential without funding mechanisms that can be triggered in real-time.
Moreover, coordination failures, bureaucratic inertia, and insufficient decentralisation continue to plague disaster management frameworks. Even existing innovations, such as the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund, are not adequately oriented toward financing pre-disaster action. Social safety net programmes, like the Vulnerable Group Feeding scheme or the Employment Generation Programme for the Poorest, are not yet aligned with risk forecasts, meaning that the potential for anticipatory deployment remains untapped.
Yet, the potential for scaling early action in Bangladesh is strong. The country鈥檚 Cyclone Preparedness Programme already mobilises more than 55,000 volunteers across coastal areas. If this infrastructure were paired with forecast-based financing and trained to act earlier, it could provide a powerful foundation for nationwide anticipatory systems. Integrating forecast-based early action into the National Plan for Disaster Management would be a critical step forward. Establishing dedicated budget lines within the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, as well as within local government allocations and climate finance instruments, would lend financial teeth to this transition. Likewise, safety net programmes must be reformed to enable early disbursement of support based on hazard forecasts rather than post-disaster assessments.
With over 20 per cent of the population still living below the poverty line, every disaster exacerbates inequality and hinders development. Reliance on international assistance for every recovery effort erodes sovereignty and undermines resilience. By investing in early action, Bangladesh can reduce long-term fiscal burdens, lessen the human cost of disasters and accelerate recovery.
Climate shocks are not only increasing in frequency but also in unpredictability. Waiting for disasters to occur before acting is increasingly an untenable strategy. Investing in early action today means saving lives, protecting development gains and securing the country鈥檚 resilience for tomorrow.
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Raihan Riaz is a research associate (climate change and disaster risk reduction) at Network for Information, Response and Preparedness Activities on Disaster.