BANGLADESH, long defined by its rivers and monsoons, is entering an era where water — once its greatest asset — is becoming its greatest vulnerability. This shift is not a far-off scenario; it is already unfolding in real time. Salinity, aquifer depletion and climate-induced flooding are converging into a perfect storm that threatens lives, livelihoods and national resilience.
In 2024 alone, back-to-back floods displaced nearly eight million people, killing dozens and destroying more than Tk 144 billion in assets. Riverbanks crumbled under sudden surges, while coastal aquifers continued to absorb creeping salinity from rising seas. The twin forces of too much water in the wrong places, and too little where it’s needed most, are stretching Bangladesh’s social and ecological systems to their limits.
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A changing water map
THE geography of Bangladesh makes it inherently vulnerable to hydro-climatic shocks. Sitting in the world’s largest delta, the country’s water systems are deeply intertwined with upstream flows, seasonal monsoons, and fragile aquifers. But this once-resilient balance is now eroding.
Sea-level rise, erratic rainfall, and rising temperatures are reshaping the country’s hydrological regime. Salinity is no longer confined to the coast; it is pushing inward, affecting soils, rivers, and shallow groundwater in places like Khulna, Satkhira, and Bagerhat. In some villages, clean drinking water is simply unavailable. Households are forced to consume brackish water, leading to rising cases of kidney disease and preeclampsia among pregnant women.
Recent surveys in Khulna show that 37 per cent of residents exhibit signs of kidney stress (mild proteinuria) due to sodium-contaminated drinking water; 20 per cent face moderate to severe conditions. These health threats are invisible but urgent — and they are growing in step with each heat wave and tidal intrusion.
Meanwhile, groundwater reserves are faltering across regions. In Dhaka, the water table drops by 2–3 metres per year, having fallen more than 60 metres in four decades. The Barind Tract in the northwest, historically reliant on deep tube wells for irrigation, now sees inconsistent recharge patterns. While monsoons offer brief reprieve, the system is in slow decline.
Worryingly, recent hydrological models suggest north-western aquifers may no longer be fully recharging, indicating a structural shift. In contrast, shallow water tables in coastal areas are rising—not from abundance, but from saline intrusion.
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Climate is the multiplier
TEMPERATURE projections show that by 2050, April temperatures could rise by as much as 4.3°C, and January by 1.7–2.4°C. These shifts will increase evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture and accelerating groundwater loss. Recharge is expected to decline by up to 150mm annually. Monsoons may become more intense but shorter, while winters grow drier and more arid.
This is not just an environmental crisis — it is a development emergency. Agriculture is faltering under saline stress. Cropping calendars are becoming obsolete. Drinking water is unsafe. Urban floods are more frequent. Public health systems are under strain. And the poor are hit first and the hardest.
Already, an estimated 41 million people are at risk of future water scarcity, with freshwater river zones in the southwest projected to shrink from 40.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent of the national territory by 2050. These are staggering figures.
Floating gardens are being revived in low-lying areas — a practice once used for resilience. But while they show the ingenuity of local adaptation, they are ultimately coping mechanisms, not long-term solutions.
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Policy exists, but implementation falters
BANGLADESH is not without a policy framework. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan and the Delta Plan 2100 outline robust, future-looking interventions. Flood early warning systems, desalination, managed aquifer recharge, rainwater harvesting — all feature in national strategies.
However, implementation is fragmented, underfunded, and often limited to pilot projects. A case in point: the Khulna water treatment plant, designed to serve thousands, is now abandoned due to poor maintenance and lack of investment. Rainwater harvesting — despite being able to meet up to 80 per cent of Dhaka’s household demand — is rarely mandated or incentivised.
Urban development continues unchecked. Between 1990 and 2021, Dhaka lost 44 per cent of its water bodies, degrading its natural flood buffers and recharge capacity. Landfilling of wetlands continues, and enforcement is weak. The capital now floods after moderate rainfall, not just cyclones.
Compounding this is the reemergence of arsenic contamination, once thought to be largely managed. Changing groundwater dynamics may be remobilising arsenic into drinking water, putting as many as 78 million people at risk again.
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What must be done
BANGLADESH must reframe its water crisis not as a future risk but as a present and escalating emergency. This begins with four critical shifts:
Tailored regional strategies: Different geographies demand different solutions. In Dhaka, rainwater capture and wetland restoration must be prioritised. In Barind, smart irrigation and aquifer recharge are essential. Coastal areas need aggressive salinity control, including tidal embankments and decentralised desalination.
Water intelligence systems: The country needs real-time, integrated monitoring — of aquifers, salinity levels, rainfall, river flows and urban infiltration. This data must be public, granular and used to guide zoning, agriculture, and disaster preparedness.
Finance for resilience, not just response: International climate finance must move from post-disaster relief to systems investment. Bangladesh needs long-term funding for nature-based solutions, water infrastructure, and climate-smart agriculture.
Social mobilisation: Public awareness is crucial. From school curricula to media campaigns, water literacy must become part of national consciousness. Communities must know the risks they face and the solutions they can drive.
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A new water ethic
WATER is no longer a resource we can take for granted. It is a finite, fragile system now under assault from climate extremes and human neglect. Bangladesh’s water crisis is not on the horizon — it is here, reshaping everything from health to harvests to habitation.
The window for adaptive action is still open, but narrowing fast. A society built on the blessing of water must now find ways to live within its limits — and to reclaim its resilience with honesty, urgency and innovation.
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Dr Makhan Lal Dutta is a development practitioner and researcher focused on climate-smart agriculture, rural livelihoods and water security. He is the chairman and CEO of Harvesting Knowledge Consultancy.