IN THE at-risk southern region of Bangladesh, fierce winds and rising rivers cause more than just home and farmland damage. Climate change, poverty, and social disintegration are quietly increasing crime, a worrying trend that is often overlooked. Policy responses prioritise rescue, relief, and infrastructure repair, but climate change-induced criminality is neglected. Satkhira officials saw an increase in thefts of livestock and emergency supplies after Cyclone Amphan in 2020. A 13-year-old girl disappeared from a cyclone shelter in Dacope, Khulna, during the 2021 monsoon season, sparking speculation about abduction and trafficking. Sarankhola Upazila residents in Bagerhat are increasingly turning to illegal activities like logging and poaching to survive land degradation. Lawlessness is rising alongside climate disasters. These issues are still ignored in disaster planning, turning this emerging crisis into a silent epidemic.
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Criminological breakdown: theories behind the trend
CRIMINOLOGICAL insights are significant in this context. Academics have consistently contended that instability, scarcity, and inadequate institutional oversight exacerbate criminal activity. Shaw and McKay鈥檚 Social Disorganisation Theory illustrates the increase in crime when both formal and informal social controls are ineffective. In the congested cyclone shelters of Satkhira and Khulna, where privacy is limited and law enforcement is lacking, incidents of molestation and harassment targeting women and young girls have escalated.
Cohen and Felson鈥檚 Routine Activity Theory posits that crime is most probable when three conditions are satisfied: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and the absence of a capable guardian. All three are frequently encountered following a disaster. Dispersed, at-risk families are susceptible targets. In the absence of patrols or shelter oversight, particularly during nighttime, numerous individuals are susceptible to minor theft and abduction.
Merton鈥檚 Strain Theory elucidates how societal pressures and restricted access to legitimate opportunities may compel individuals to pursue criminal alternatives. Saltwater intrusion has devastated shrimp farms in southern Bangladesh, while storms have obliterated fishing nets. A significant number lack income. In this void, illegal logging, wildlife poaching, and trafficking emerge as means of survival.
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Patterns in crime: data and local trends
FIELD research in disaster-prone areas shows that molestation is the most reported crime after a disaster, peaking in October during shelter overcrowding. Lack of supervision, drug abuse, and poverty contribute. Theft, especially of relief materials, livestock, and boats after floods, is another trend. Most disturbing is the rise in child trafficking. Khulna and Satkhira reports show a sharp rise in missing children after major climate events, many of whom are trafficked into cities or across borders.
After the disaster, crime mapping shows Maheswaripur in Khulna, Hazarkhali in Bagerhat, and Gabura in Satkhira as hotspots. Crime thrives in these areas due to resource scarcity, weak institutions, and climatic shocks.
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Human stories and local insights
PERSONAL stories show this crisis. Fatema Begum of Dacope, Khulna, recalls the night her daughter disappeared in the 2021 floods. Our school was crowded after the flooding. Police and door locks were absent. She said, 鈥楳y daughter just disappeared one night. Hundreds of families watch their children disappear into trafficking networks.
Local police recognise the gap. 鈥楧uring disasters, we鈥檙e spread thin,鈥� said a police officer in Satkhira. He added, 鈥楻escue and logistics are our top priorities. Since staff and resources are scarce, crime prevention is neglected.鈥�
Young people may be most at risk. Closing schools and losing jobs make many youth vulnerable to influence. Others commit petty theft or join organised smuggling networks along Bangladesh鈥檚 porous southern borders.
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Economic trigger
THESE trends are driven by devastating economic losses. Research by RSIS International (2023) found that per-household damage averages BDT 12,368.82 for housing, 14,887.34 for crops, 14,345.21 for property, and an astonishing 35,916.66 for business. These numbers represent broken lives, abandoned livelihoods, and a community falling deeper into poverty with each storm.
Limited long-term rehabilitation worsens the situation. After a disaster, crime cycles thrive without stable employment, education, and mental health services. Desperation becomes deviant behaviour, and temporary coping mechanisms become permanent threats to social order as poverty grows and state support is patchy.
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Policy gaps and urgent needs
BANGLADESH rarely prioritises crime prevention in its disaster response framework, despite the crisis. Shelters lack basic security. The ministry of disaster management and the ministry of home affairs lack coordination. No systematic data collection exists for climate change-related crimes, making targeted policies harder to implement.
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Integrating criminological perspective into climate response
BANGLADESH must rethink disaster response criminologically to address the following complex issues: 1) Incorporate crime prevention into national disaster plans, such as mobile policing, surveillance, and gender-sensitive shelter supervision. 2) Enable local youth and NGOs to serve as community watchers during disaster recovery, addressing enforcement gaps. 3) Enhance border control to reduce trafficking, particularly in high-risk areas like Satkhira. 4) Promote livelihood restoration through vocational training, microcredit, and psychosocial counselling to reduce stress-related crimes. 5) Support academic research on climate-related crime trends for evidence-based policymaking.
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Storm beyond the storm
SOCIAL erosion accelerates with the climate crisis. Environmental vulnerability and rising crime are a reality in southern Bangladesh. We must combine disaster resilience with criminological insight to protect our most vulnerable communities from the next storm of violence, theft, and lost innocence. The next cyclone may destroy more than homes. Broken laws, broken lives, and a new crisis cycle may result. Policy action must be taken immediately.
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Abrar-Bin-Shoukat Alvi is a law student at the Bangladesh University of Professionals.