THE tenuous nature of negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has left the world teetering on the edge of heightened conflict. If these talks ultimately fail, what follows could redefine the global order in ways both expected and unintended.
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Return of full-scale conflict
SHOULD diplomatic efforts collapse, an immediate and obvious consequence is the escalation of hostilities. Ukraine is likely to intensify its drone attacks deep into Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure in a bid to weaken Moscow鈥檚 logistical backbone. At the same time, Russia, which has already been shifting toward a war economy, could launch renewed offensives to secure strategic gains, such as the full control of Donetsk, Luhansk, and possibly Odesa.
The west, especially the US and European allies, will face a defining moment 鈥� whether to significantly increase military aid to Ukraine or risk ceding more ground to Russia. Advanced weapons systems, long-range missiles, and increased intelligence sharing could become the bedrock of a reinvigorated Ukrainian war effort, although such support risks drawing NATO further into the conflict.
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Europe-led security realignment
WITH Washington shifting focus to the Pacific and the Middle East, the burden of supporting Ukraine will increasingly fall on Europe. The United Kingdom and France have already floated the idea of a 鈥榗oalition of the willing鈥� that could provide direct military support, either through peacekeeping troops or an air and naval presence. But logistical and political roadblocks remain.
One proposal gaining traction involves accelerating Ukraine鈥檚 EU membership, potentially invoking Article 42.7鈥� the bloc鈥檚 mutual defence clause. A more aggressive version of this strategy suggests a limited NATO membership for Ukraine, excluding occupied territories. Such a move, while symbolic, would significantly raise the stakes for Russia and redefine security calculations across the continent.
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Economic and diplomatic fallout
ONE of the most immediate repercussions of failed negotiations would be a new wave of sanctions against Russia. These would likely focus on cutting off its oil and gas revenues, with the US potentially implementing secondary sanctions that punish countries 鈥� such as China and India 鈥� for purchasing Russian energy.
However, the global economy is not as resilient as it was in the early days of the conflict. The US trade relationship with China remains robust, with total goods trade surpassing $582 billion in 2024. India, now a key economic partner of the US with $119 billion in bilateral trade, would also be caught in the crossfire. A move to block Russian energy exports could not only deepen the divide between the west and the global south but could also backfire on western economies already struggling with inflationary pressures.
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Frozen conflict scenario
IF OUTRIGHT military victory proves elusive for either side, a Korean War-style armistice could emerge 鈥� an indefinite ceasefire without a formal peace deal. This scenario would likely cement Russian control over occupied territories, leaving Ukraine in a state of prolonged geopolitical limbo.
However, president Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly dismissed the idea of ceding land for peace, particularly regarding Crimea. If Ukraine holds firm, the war could drag on indefinitely, with intermittent battles mirroring conflicts like that of Israel and Hamas 鈥� never fully resolved, only managed.
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Internal fractures in Ukraine
A PROLONGED war without a clear path to victory could spell political trouble for Kyiv. Tensions between Zelensky and Ukraine鈥檚 military leadership have already surfaced, with debates over conscription reforms and battlefield strategies growing more contentious. If negotiations fail, internal divisions could weaken Ukraine鈥檚 war effort and test western resolve to continue military aid.
At the same time, Ukraine has been stepping up its cross-border incursions, including recent attacks in Belgorod. The Ukrainian objective remains unclear鈥攚hether these strikes are aimed at forcing Russia to redeploy troops away from the frontlines or securing leverage in future negotiations. Either way, Ukraine鈥檚 military posture suggests an unwillingness to accept a frozen conflict or territorial concessions.
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Nuclear escalation risk
ONE of the gravest concerns is that a total diplomatic breakdown could push Russia to increase its nuclear brinkmanship. The Kremlin has already issued thinly veiled threats of using tactical nuclear weapons should NATO forces directly intervene. If western security commitments escalate, particularly with a European military presence in western Ukraine, the risk of a catastrophic miscalculation grows exponentially.
While most analysts believe that Russia鈥檚 nuclear threats are largely rhetorical, history is replete with moments where leaders made disastrous decisions under pressure. The mere perception of NATO forces moving closer to Russian borders could prompt Putin to make preemptive moves, however irrational they might seem in hindsight.
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Trump鈥檚 approach and US dilemma
THE next phase of US policy may hinge on Donald Trump鈥檚 approach. As of now, Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Russia鈥檚 negotiation tactics, threatening severe energy sanctions should talks collapse. His administration has also signalled a shift toward containing China, potentially deprioritising the European theatre.
If Trump follows through on threats to penalise nations trading with Russia, it could upend global energy markets. Sanctions alone, however, won鈥檛 change the military calculus on the ground. More crucially, if the US signals a strategic pivot away from Ukraine, Europe will be forced to decide whether it is truly prepared to take on the mantle of leading Ukraine鈥檚 defence鈥攁 task that requires far greater military readiness than current European capabilities suggest.
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Harsh reality for Europe
SHOULD Ukraine鈥檚 defences falter and its government face collapse, the most likely contingency plan for Europe is a military presence in western Ukraine, potentially as a tripwire force to deter further Russian advances. The problem? Europe鈥檚 military capabilities are stretched thin. Without US logistical and intelligence support, any European deployment would likely be more symbolic than substantive.
Even in a best-case scenario where the UK and France deploy air and naval forces, such assets would be vulnerable. Russia鈥檚 extensive air defence network and missile capabilities would put any European forces in the line of fire. And if Russia sees European intervention as a direct provocation, retaliation against staging areas in Poland and Romania is not out of the question.
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World at crossroads
THE failure of negotiations would not simply mean a continuation of the current war 鈥� it would introduce a host of unpredictable and potentially disastrous consequences. From the economic blowback of secondary sanctions to the risk of nuclear escalation, every possible scenario carries significant risks.
The fundamental question remains: does the west have a clear strategy beyond supporting Ukraine with military aid? If negotiations fail, the US and Europe will have to make a decisive choice 鈥� either escalate their involvement and risk a broader war or seek a compromise that, while politically unpalatable, might prevent an even greater catastrophe.
In geopolitics, indecision can be just as dangerous as the wrong decision. The coming months will reveal whether the west is prepared to take the necessary risks 鈥� or whether it will be forced into a reactive stance as Russia continues to dictate the terms of engagement.
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MA Hossain is political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh.