AS BANGLADESH emerges from a period of political turmoil following the student-led mass movement that ousted the government of prime minister Sheikh Hasina, it faces a pivotal moment in its foreign policy. While the fallen Hasina鈥檚 government maintained a so-called balanced relationship with both China and India, many analysts now argue that Bangladesh鈥檚 future lies in evolving stronger ties with China, a nation that has become its most important development partner, military supplier, and strategic ally in recent years.
Most importantly, the recent student-led protests that led to the fall of Hasina鈥檚 government were fuelled by widespread dissatisfaction with her increasingly authoritarian rule and the perception that her policies prioritised Indian interests over Bangladesh鈥檚 national sovereignty. While the Hasina government did engage with China, critics argue that her administration was too grateful to India, leaving little room for Bangladesh to independently plan its course in the region.
Now, Bangladesh seeks new leadership and a future government that can serve the interests of the masses. The interim government is led by Nobel laureate and economist Dr Muhammad Yunus, who is globally acceptable. He has sought China鈥檚 help in terms of Bangladesh鈥檚 economic and infrastructure development. He has urged China to invest in the solar energy sector in Bangladesh. He can shift the country鈥檚 foreign policy toward China, ending an unjustifiable influence of India on Bangladeshi affairs. The future elected governments can continue economic and foreign relations with China.
China has become one of Bangladesh鈥檚 largest and most influential development partners in recent years, providing critical infrastructure support through its Belt and Road Initiative. Since Bangladesh joined the BRI in 2016, China has been instrumental in financing and constructing vital infrastructure projects, from highways and railways to energy plants and seaports.
The Padma Bridge, the Karnaphuli Tunnel, and the Payra Port in southern Bangladesh, for example, have been developed with Chinese capital and technology, signalling as a crucial node in the regional trade network. These projects have helped boost Bangladesh鈥檚 economic growth, which has been among the fastest in the world in recent years. However, critics of this economic relationship caution that the growing dependence on Chinese loans could place Bangladesh in a vulnerable position, particularly if the country struggles to repay its debt.听Despite these concerns, Bangladesh鈥檚 participation in the BRI has underscored the country鈥檚 deepening ties with China, which are likely to play an increasingly dominant role in its future economic line.
Beyond economic development, China has become a key player in Bangladesh鈥檚 military modernisation. Bangladesh, which faces ongoing security challenges in a volatile region, has increasingly turned to China for weapons and military technology. While Bangladesh has traditionally been a close partner of India in terms of military cooperation, China has emerged as the primary source of advanced military hardware. Among the most significant deals between China and Bangladesh, there has been the historic deal of two Type 035G Ming-class submarines delivered in 2016. These submarines have enhanced Bangladesh鈥檚 naval capabilities and are seen as a strategic asset in the Bay of Bengal, a region of growing importance due to its geopolitical and economic significance.
In addition to the submarines, China has provided Bangladesh with fighter jets, air defence systems, radar technology, and artillery. The close military ties between the two countries go beyond the exchange of weapons. China has also been involved in training Bangladeshi military personnel and conducting joint exercises. Very recently, two sophisticated Chinese naval ships arrived at Chittagong port. Since the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, China has played a critical role in the development of the country鈥檚 military, particularly in the Bangladesh Navy, Air Force, and Army. This deepening military relationship with China has reduced Bangladesh鈥檚 reliance on traditional military partners like India and Western powers.
Bangladesh鈥檚 participation in China鈥檚 Belt and Road Initiative has been one of the most important developments in the country鈥檚 foreign policy in recent years. As a part of this ambitious global infrastructure and trade project, Bangladesh has received billions of dollars in Chinese investment for large-scale infrastructure projects, such as bridges, roads, railways, and energy plants. The BRI offers Bangladesh not only access to Chinese capital but also a pathway to greater regional connectivity, making the country an integral part of China鈥檚 vision for expanding its economic footprint across Asia. While these projects have been a major driver of economic growth, some critics argue that the debt associated with the BRI could undermine Bangladesh鈥檚 long-term financial stability. There are also concerns about China鈥檚 growing political influence in the country, as Chinese companies and workers dominate many key infrastructure sectors.
Nonetheless, with the political shift in Bangladesh following Hasina鈥檚 ouster, there is a growing belief that a new elected government may seek to deepen the country鈥檚 relationship with China at the expense of the country鈥檚 relations with the United States and India.听The interim government led by Yunus is expected to prioritise China鈥檚 role in Bangladesh鈥檚 economic future over the interests of India, the United States, and its Western allies. Under Yunus, Bangladesh may seek to deepen its participation in the BRI, attract more Chinese investment, and further modernise its military with Chinese technology. This shift would mark a departure from fallen Hasina鈥檚 illogical pro-India policies and could place Bangladesh at the centre of China鈥檚 growing influence on South Asia.
Since independence, Bangladesh has experienced unexpected India鈥檚 hegemony over its economy, its culture, its military, its politics, and its independent policy decisions. The growing influence of China in Bangladesh鈥檚 economy and military, combined with the political shift away from India鈥檚 dominance, points to a potential realignment of Bangladesh鈥檚 foreign policy. As Bangladesh looks to the future following student-mass movement and sacrifices of many innocent lives, this interim government could steer the country toward a more China-centric approach, prioritising economic growth, infrastructure development, and military modernisation in partnership with Beijing. This growing relationship with China, however, will undoubtedly have significant implications for the broader region. As Bangladesh navigates its new political landscape, it must carefully balance its ties with China, India, and the United States to ensure that its sovereignty and long-term interests are protected in an increasingly multipolar world.
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Dr Md Momtazur Rahman is a professor of English and registrar at the International University of Business Agriculture and Technology.