FOR Bangladesh and the rest of the world, it was an accomplishment no one could have imagined a day ago. Prominent political parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat tried for 15 years to dislodge the authoritarian government of Sheikh Hasina. They went through harsh incidents such as imprisonment, forced disappearances, execution, extrajudicial killing, torture, forced unemployment and lost business. Jamaat, non-party Hefazat and smaller left and left-centre parties also tried hard with similar sacrifices. But nothing worked.
The paramount question about the failure of the previous movements remains elusive. Most objective realities, eg lack of freedom, oppressive rule, a sluggish economy in terms of job creation, unbearable unemployment, high inflation, foreign currency laundering, extreme income inequality and rampant corruption, have been built up with increasing intensity over one and half decades of Hasina’s fascist administration. Although some eye-pleasing infrastructure abound, the exorbitant costs of the projects, jacked up by the corrupt practices of political elites and their cohorts, could not generate enough jobs to mitigate endemic unemployment problems.
Defying the flashy picture of growth and prosperity, nearly 40 per cent of people aged 5–24 are either not in school or unemployed. Bangladesh’s per capita GDP has exceeded India’s, but the benefit has lined the pockets of the rich and powerful. The forgotten have-nots are those who could not enjoy the patronage of the political establishment. The compensations for the workers and the peasants have been miserably low. Corruption and bribery invaded the country with its ugly fangs.
The dimension of corruption has been beyond civilised comprehension. Unjustified loans with fake collaterals have emptied bank reserves and then the funds have been siphoned out as billions of dollars in money laundering.
As an obvious consequence, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a dangerous level and several banks have been on the verge of bankruptcy because loan defaulters have partnered with the corrupt political elite.
For silencing any voice against the plundering of national resources and the authoritarian oppression by the illegal government without people’s mandate, the freedom of speech and expression have been ruthlessly suppressed. People liked to express their resentment but could not even whisper because no one knew when the government machinery would round them up. Fear invaded every nook and corner.
Sheikh Hasina perpetuated her power by conducting three sham elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024. There was no peaceful way of the transfer of power. The only option remaining is the violent overthrow.
The entire country has turned into a powder keg, ready to explode. But the powder keg did not explode until the Gen Z revolution. Why?
Before exploring an answer to the above inquiry, let us find out the source from which the evil design of Sheikh Hasina originated. In the election of 2008, the Awami League won 230 parliamentary seats in a stunning avalanche victory. Adding 36 reserve seats, the total was 266, more than three-fourths of parliamentary seats. With this whopping majority, Hasina abolished the caretaker government system. Ironically, for this, she earlier launched a two-year campaign of strikes and blockades against the BNP government of Khaleda Zia. This opportunistic and dangerous amendment was done to perpetuate Hasina’s rule by manipulating sham elections conducted by his crony Election Commission with the help of security forces and civil administration, which have been filled by party loyalists.
As quid pro quo, the party hacks were allowed to indulge in rampant corruption. It has been a strange but symbiotic relationship that sustained both the dictator and the corrupt deep state. June 30, 2011 is the day of infamy when this amendment was passed. It sowed the seeds of discontent among the masses. But, it helped Hasina to become increasingly an authoritarian monster. Inequality, corruption, unemployment, suppression of human rights and lack of freedom of speech turned the country into a powder keg as time passed and the Gen Z Revolution exploded that powder keg during 30 days of July. But still, the question remains: why not before the July uprising?
Did the opposition led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party try hard? Indeed, it did a few times, especially in December 2013, January 2015 and October 2023, with strikes and blockades to press its demand for the reinstatement of the caretaker government system. Each time it tried, it had to endure extrajudicial killing, imprisonment, arrest, torture, false criminal cases and forced disappearances. It was brutal.
For aÌýdeeper understanding, theÌýOctober 2023 movement deserves more investigation. On October 28, 2023, tens of thousands of Bangladesh Nationalist Party activists, sympathisers and others gathered at a rally in Dhaka, demanding elections. The Jamaat-e-Islami and smaller political parties rallied in different venues in Dhaka. The ruling Awami League organised demonstrations to crush the rallies, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s because it is the arch-rival. The police and ruling party loyalists descended on the rally with extreme vengeance. The savagery was so intense that the rally organisers called off the entire programme. Thus, the October movement ended in a premature death.
It is hard to analyse the October movement’s failure reasonably. However, one can speculate that the demands did not resonate with the masses, the leadership failed to arouse or use revolutionary passion, orÌýordinary people were suspicious of the opposition political parties’ intents. People were uncomfortable facing the oppressive regime because they, perhaps, thought, wrongly or rightly, based on their previous experiences, that it would be futile to replace one regime with nearly a similar one. So, they ignored the calls.
For certain, on October 28, 2023, the BNP leadership in Dhaka failed to use the intense passion of tens of thousands of supporters at the rally in Dhaka’s Naya Paltan. Even if only one of the BNP leaders had opened his chest in front of the marauding security forces like Abu Sayeed did on July 16, history could have been written differently. Instead, they called it quits. The party’s acting chair Tarique Rahman, who was exiled to London, did not like the conduct of the rally. The human toll of the failed October movement was 11 deaths, including two police constables, and hundreds of injuries. Bravery is contagious, like cowardice. Was it cowardice that killed the October movement? Future research will show. The entire movement for the restoration of the caretaker government for free and fair elections died out and, subsequently, repression, including torture and mass arrest, was unleashed on the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
To be continued.
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Dr Mostofa Sarwar, a scientist and poet, is a professor emeritus at the University of New Orleans. He was dean, provost and vice-chancellor of Delgado Community College and served as a visiting professor and adjunct faculty of the University of Pennsylvania.