The war on Gaza has crossed every imaginable threshold of human suffering. Since October 7, 2023, Israel鈥檚 relentless military campaign has resulted in moe than 67,000 Palestinian deaths, of which most are women and children, and more than 167,000 injuries, alongside hundreds of Israeli casualties and over 240 hostages taken from Israel. Ninety percent of Gaza鈥檚 2.1 million residents have been displaced, stripped of necessities such as food, clean water, shelter, medical care, education and livelihood. Gaza today is a landscape of rubble and ruin, with its humanitarian situation worsening each passing day. And yet, amid this devastation, an unexpected ceasefire proposal has emerged that has re-ignited both hope and deep scepticism.
The world has watched the onslaught on Gaza with a mixture of outrage and helplessness. Despite Israel being surrounded by adversarial states, it has launched strikes on multiple fronts 鈥� Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Qatar, Iraq and Iran 鈥� with objectives ranging from crippling military capabilities to weakening potential adversaries. Little has changed on the ground. Israeli troops remain in northern Gaza, drones patrol the sky and humanitarian conditions deteriorate daily.
Against this grim backdrop, US president Donald Trump has declared a 20-point peace plan, calling it 鈥榯he greatest deal for Israel and Middle East peace in 3,000 years.鈥� The proposal centres on a phased Israeli withdrawal, the creation of a buffer zone and the release of all Israeli hostages, including bodies of those killed, by Hamas. Trump has cast this as Hamas鈥檚 鈥榣ast chance鈥� to avoid complete obliteration while simultaneously pressing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the deal.
But the deal is fraught with ambiguities and asymmetry. Analysts point out that the proposal appears to be largely engineered by Netanyahu鈥檚 government, with no meaningful Palestinian participation. Crucially, there is no guarantee that Israel would fully withdraw after the hostage release. Experiences such as Israel鈥檚 breach of ceasefire agreements in early 2025 raise legitimate doubts. Questions also loom over who will control the buffer zone: a US-led stabilisation force or a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission?
The winners of this deal are the Trump administration and the Israeli government, both eager to consolidate political support at home and bolster their image abroad. It is a calculated move to secure power and international recognition, not to bring justice or peace. Meanwhile, Palestinians are once again left to bear the cost, facing deepening uncertainty, the erosion of their land and the denial of their fundamental rights, including statehood. History has showed that such deals consistently leave Palestinians on the losing end and is, this time, unlikely to be any different.
Trump鈥檚 sudden diplomatic intervention is not without calculation. Two factors stand out. First, growing domestic opposition in the United States over taxpayer money funding an increasingly controversial Israeli military campaign. Public and congressional pressure has mounted as images of Gaza鈥檚 devastation flood global media. Second, Trump appears to be seeking a foreign policy legacy, perhaps even eyeing a Nobel peace prize by brokering a deal in one of the world鈥檚 most intractable conflicts.
Yet, the peace plan鈥檚 lack of Palestinian representation undermines its legitimacy. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation, weakened though, remains the recognised representative of the Palestinian people in Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Golan Heights. A ceasefire deal without Palestinian agency risks becoming little more than a political manoeuvre rather than a path to sustainable peace. The irony is striking: the Trump administration and Israeli authorities are shaping a deal in which one side single-handedly determines the fate of the other, leaving Palestinians with no voice or recourse. Those who once sought refuge in Palestine are now the ones uprooting its original inhabitants, turning history on its head.
Despite ongoing diplomatic manoeuvring, the situation in Gaza remains catastrophic. Israeli bombardment continues even as ceasefire talks unfold. Civilians trapped in the conflict zone are desperate to return to their neighborhoods in northern Gaza only to find them flattened. Israeli forces continue to bar their movement northwards and the proposed deal does not address their right to return. Netanyahu鈥檚 track record also casts doubt. A long-time opponent of the two-state solution, he has ensured that once Palestinians are displaced, they are rarely allowed back. If this deal similarly neglects their return, Gaza鈥檚 displaced population could face permanent dispossession. While the proposed deal paves the way for the release of Israeli hostages, it does not clearly outline the safety and return of Palestinians trapped in the ruins of Gaza. Far from a balanced compromise, it tilts decisively in Israel鈥檚 favour, transforming what should have been a mutual relief into a 鈥榳inner takes all鈥� arrangement.
Trump has taken personal ownership of pushing the ceasefire plan, pressuring Netanyahu to halt the bombing and warning of diplomatic consequences. The White House is reportedly frustrated with Netanyahu鈥檚 resistance, reflecting growing fissures in the US-Israel relationship. Israel faces unprecedented isolation, with mass protests from Amsterdam to Karachi, Istanbul to London, and widespread condemnation at the United Nations. Domestically, Netanyahu faces intense pressure to secure the release of Israeli hostages while Hamas, also under strain, is reportedly willing to negotiate their release, pending logistical guarantees and an end to Israeli strikes. This alignment of pressure could provide a narrow window for a deal. The ceasefire deal is unlikely to bring any meaningful change to the lives of Gaza鈥檚 displaced population, offering at best a brief respite from relentless bombardment. Israel retains the option to resume its military operations at any moment, often citing the pursuit of alleged Hamas fighters hidden among the already devastated civilian population.
The proposed ceasefire in Gaza carries both promise and peril. On the one hand, it could bring the much-needed relief to a devastated population, ease international tension and set the stage, however modestly, for broader negotiations. On the other, the exclusion of Palestinians, the absence of robust guarantees and Israel鈥檚 record of ceasefire violations could render this another temporary pause, rather than a step towards genuine peace.
For the people of Gaza who have endured unspeakable suffering, the question remains: will this ceasefire offer a pathway to life or merely prolong their despair denying the two-state solution? The world watches as Egypt prepares to host another round of talks in Sharm el-Sheikh. History, however, cautions us that without justice, participation and accountability, even the most elaborate peace deals risk collapsing under the weight of their own contradictions.
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Mustafa Kamal Rusho, a retired brigadier general, works with the Osmani Centre for Peace and Security Studies.
