MYANMAR is a complex geopolitical milieu in the Indo-Pacific region that directly affects the connectivity between South and Southeast Asia. During colonial time, it was one geopolitical unit, but it is now practically divided. There is tension brewing at the midpoint between these two sub-systems. The internal insurgency and national integration problems of Myanmar have added fuel to fire. Their ethnic issues are conflagrating with each passing day, with no end in sight. Democracy has taken a back seat. So, there is no easy or direct channel to conduct diplomacy and negotiations with the central government, based in the capital.
These two sub-regions are now distinctively different after the British left, ending their century-old colonisation. This colonisation left trails of pauperisation, insurgencies, inter-state and ethnic conflicts, boundary demarcation problems, internal and across-the-border migrations, lack of national and regional integration, etc. Southeast Asian region has progressed a lot like forming a robust regional organisation called ASEAN that includes Myanmar. Myanmar may now be called a blocking bridge between South and Southeast Asia for a free flow of goods and services, ideas and transport by land and waterways. It is, rather, disseminating ideas like distrust, conflicts, genocide, ethnic cleansing, insurgencies, military or junta preponderance, lack of democracy or no democracy, lack of the rule of law, religious and ethnic hatred, social regression, etc.
As for relation between Bangladesh and Myanmar, it gives a rather bleak future that carries the potential of conflagrating into a conventional war, let alone the unconventional that is, otherwise, bleeding Myanmar because of its internal divisiveness. The unitary state system, from being a federal, has created much of the problems in nation and state-building of Myanmar. Its ripple effects are acutely felt by Bangladesh.
The relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar is complex, shaped by historical ties, economic cooperation and significant humanitarian challenges, particularly concerning the historical and geographical contexts.
Relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar are rooted in geographical proximity and shared history. Both countries have engaged politically, culturally and economically for centuries, with a focus on mutual benefits and cooperation in various sectors such as trade, energy and disaster management.听All such ties get diluted by the present influx of more than a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, being forcibly driven out of their century-old hearth and home by applying the most despicable strategy of 鈥榞enocide鈥� by Myanmar鈥檚 security forces.
This is triggered, as mentioned, by applying its most hated state policy of cleansing Myanmar of Muslims from the territories of greater Myanmar, especially in the province of Rakhine. Humanity has been sacrificed at the altar of its most despicable state policy.
The concept of nation-state that got its birth after the Treaty of Westphalia in Europe in 1648 after they had fought the 80 years and seven years of war. This concept is dying in Asia, especially in a land called Myanmar. Democracy is already dead there as is humanity. Should the world be an onlooker to such an appalling state of affairs? Merely taking it to the world court makes no difference to the attitudes of the generals, who have been ruling Myanmar for decades without honouring any international laws, rules and conventions. These generals are even failing to preserve the territorial integrity of this artificial and fragile state. Manifestations of such an imposed state cannot augur well for the peace and prosperity of the state itself and the region that has a dynamic and vibrant regional organisation such as the ASEAN. Such a state of affairs is directly impinging Bangladesh-Myanmar relations. Why to blame ASEAN only for not being able to vector Myanmar towards rationality? This is also true for the United Nations Security Council as both China and Russia vetoed proposals to solve this vexed problem multilaterally. Rohingya is a burning issue that is haunting an economically not so solvent a state like Bangladesh.
A significant aspect of the relationship is the ongoing humanitarian crisis involving the Rohingyas. Since 2017, more than a million Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh because of military crackdown on Myanmar鈥檚 Rakhine State. Bangladesh has hosted the refugees in the crowded camps which has strained its resources to the extent of almost destroying the ecology of its surrounding and has, thus, given rise to many other related security concerns such as drug and women and child trafficking.听This influx of refugee migration from Myanmar to Bangladesh started in 1978 and continues till date as a routine with certain interruptions. The ethnic cleansing continued, in large numbers, in 1978, 1991鈥�92 and 2017.
This issue has to an extent rattled the world although it has not shaken it enough to take punitive action in the form of humanitarian intervention as was done in the case of Serbia and Kosovo in Europe by the NATO forces that had the mandate of the United Nations. This resulted in creating an autonomous region called 鈥楥roatia.鈥� This action demonstrated the fact that the humanitarian intervention was an instrument that could justify a war. This, however, also did not happen in respect of Rwanda as the genocide raged between the two ethnic tribes.
A minority identity has been constructed for the Rohingyas in Myanmar. Burmese nationalism, based on both religion and ethnicity, has made the Rohingya identity contested. Thus, it has denied citizenship to the Rohingyas. This may be called a historical fallacy at the height of Bamar chauvinistic nationalism. Even the term 鈥楻ohingya鈥� is contested within Myanmar. They are regarded as immigrants from Bangladesh or some prefer to call them as Bengalis.
Bangladesh has acknowledged the need to maintain communication with the Arakan Army, a non-state actor that has gained control over significant areas in Rakhine. This engagement is seen as necessary for managing border security and addressing the changing dynamics in the region.听That said, the communication with the Arakan Army does not take Bangladesh to any move to sever diplomatic relations with the central government.
Added to these, they have a declared state policy that Myanmar would be totally cleared of Muslim population. Such a state policy has given rise to the policy of ethnic cleansing and genocide. Bangladesh for no faults of its own has become a victim of sheltering more than a million of refugees in its overpopulated short territorial space.
Going beyond, it is inviting extra and regional actors to act and play their geopolitics to dictate this country and its surrounding thus disturbing the equanimity and economic prosperity of these two sub-regions. Souh-East Asia is much less affected although Myanmar is part of it. Myanmar is, in fact, disturbing both the sub-regions, to its east and west. So, there is a blockage in connectivity projects, both in highway construction and railway connectivity.
Myanmar is plagued by inter-ethnic insurgencies throughout the length and breadth of the country, with the military sitting in the capital. So, basically, it is controlling a smaller portion of the country. Even the largest democracy-practising political party, led by a Nobel laureate Aung Sung Suu Kyi, has formed a military outfit to fight the military juntas. They have formed the National Unity Government in exile to fight the military forces, who have desecrated democracy time and again. This National Unity Government is even controlling or coordinating the activities of other ethnic groups, scattered in different parts of the country, fighting for their rights to self-determination and fundamental human rights. The National Unity Government, allied with various armed groups, in May 2021 further complicated the Bangladesh-Myanmar relationship.
The ongoing war in Rakhine state has provided a pretext on a platter to postpone indefinitely the pilot project for Rohingya repatriation. Even the National Unity Government has also expressed its intention to repatriate the Rohingya only after the military government is overthrown. So, the case of repatriation is in limbo.
In the surrounding areas, China has the highest stakes in this geopolitically important country that sits near the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait, the Andaman and Nicobar Island group that houses the integrated theatre command of Indian military forces. It has the potential to even station nuclear weapons. The Quad alliance partners conduct military drills routinely in and around this group. These drills are part of a bigger game of containing China, which is also aspiring to dominate the Bay of Bengal in the near future and the Indian Ocean in not-so-distant a future. There is already a tug-of-war in the South China Sea with the possibility of a catastrophic war breaking out between the most dominant military power of the world and the emerging most dominant power. The war over one of the most dangerous flashpoints of the world, ie Taiwan, is now a possibility.
Between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea lies the second most critical choke point of the world called the Malacca Strait that connects these two seas. These seas and areas are the most vulnerable energy sea lines of communication from the Persian Gulf to Japan, China, South Korea and so on.
Myanmar is now facilitating the much-coveted Chinese policy of bypass strategy 鈥� like that in Pakistan 鈥� of carrying its most critical resources called hydrocarbons to its mainland. Myanmar has provided its facilities at the port of Kyaukpyu and oil and pipelines that originate in the Bay of Bengal and reach to the Chinese southern province of Kunming, covering more than 800 kilometres through the mainland of Myanmar. These hydrocarbons are critical for the sustenance of the life and civilisation of China. China just cannot afford to block even its one day鈥檚 energy supplies. Myanmar has the tenth-largest gas reserves of the world estimated at 90 trillion cubic feet.
So, this energy and these routes and seas are fast turning into core values of China. The United States, Japan and India are following such development, not from a distance, but closely with befitting military response, in case of a necessity. One such response at hand is the Quad. It is augmented by another such grouping called AUKUS. The US-Japan hub is already in operation since World War II.
Global or regional supply chain is likely to get disrupted in case this sea lines of communication are disrupted especially near the Malacca Strait. It is likely that China will go all out to keep it functional and its rivals will likely prevail to block China. So, this conflict is likely to overwhelm Myanmar and its surroundings.
The United States has legislated the Burma Act, having a vision that may entangle China, India, Russia, Bangladesh and the region. The Indo-Pacific strategy is also crafted to constrain China, where the leadership of the Indian Ocean has been delegated to India. This definitely will not be to China鈥檚 liking. These two countries are arch-rivals that is rooted in their history. There is always a possibility of another total war breaking out reminiscent of the 1962 war. Bangladesh and Myanmar may not be able to remain away from the fog of such a prospective war. The contested territories of Arunachal province between China and India share the boundaries both with Myanmar and China. India has Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project in the Rakhine state.
India has 鈥榓ct Asia鈥� policy, China has the BRI project, the United States has Indo-Pacific strategy and the Burma Act, Japan has听Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt听project, etc. All these projects are operating well together in Myanmar. All these strategies are hard powers, where ASEAN is only providing soft power which is of no practical consequence. It even does not have teeth like that of the African Union.
The world鈥檚 multilateral institutions such as the United Nations may take over the helms of this state of Myanmar and sort out its internal divisiveness and governance. The UN peace-keeping force may be a necessary reminiscent of a kind of the Cambodia model. It may initially form a contact group like that of North Korea. I am suggesting a tall order but still I do as without sorting out its state and governance structure, and national integration, the Rohingya refugee issue will continue to be a burden on Bangladesh. This burden may exacerbate traditional security threat in this sub-region.
The European Union may support the cause through vibrant diplomacy and negotiations to bring all the potent heads together. The European Union can, additionally, support the life sustenance costs of the most vulnerable and stateless refugees called the Rohingyas, majority of them are women and children. The European Union may also recognise the Rohingya issue as a world problem. Bangladesh is just managing it for the time being on behalf of the world.
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Mohd Aminul Karim is a distinguished professor of international relations in the Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka.
