THE Middle East is teetering on the edge of a full-scale regional war after the US military, in coordination with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo on June 21. Iran鈥檚 swift retaliation, declaring US positions and citizens in the region as legitimate targets, culminated in an attack on a US base in Qatar on June 23. President Donald Trump鈥檚 subsequent declaration of a ceasefire on June 24 raises critical questions. Is this a genuine step towards peace or merely a tactical pause before further escalation?
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Three phases of war
WAR, much like an aircraft鈥檚 flight, follows a trajectory with distinct phases: initiation, expansion and conclusion. The US-Israel strike on Iran marks the shift from the start phase, marked by covert operations, sanctions and proxy conflicts, to the expand phase, where direct military engagement risks drawing in more actors and widening the conflict.
In this volatile phase, Iran is likely to retaliate through its proxies 鈥� Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria 鈥� targeting US bases, the Israeli territory and Gulf Arab states. Israel, backed by the United States, would respond with further airstrikes, creating a cycle of violence that becomes increasingly difficult to contain.
The end phase remains uncertain. Will the conflict conclude through negotiation, a decisive military victory, or spiral into a catastrophic regional or even global war? The answer hinges on the actions of regional and global powers as well as the behaviour of the warring parties.
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Arab nations
ARAB states find themselves caught between opposing pressures. While Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates oppose Iran鈥檚 influence, they fear direct involvement could provoke retaliatory strikes on their oil infrastructure or population centres. Their roles may include:
Saudi Arabia and UAE: Quiet support for US-Israel actions, but avoiding overt involvement to mitigate Iranian retaliation.
Iraq and Syria: Potential battlegrounds for low-intensity conflicts, with Shia militias targeting US forces and Israeli airstrikes hitting Iranian-backed operations.
Jordan and Egypt: Silent backing of the United States and Israel although domestic sympathy for Palestine may force symbolic condemnations of Israeli actions.
Lebanon and Yemen: Hezbollah鈥檚 involvement could trigger Israeli strikes on Lebanon while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could further destabilise the region.
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Russia and China
FOR Russia and China, the conflict presents both opportunities and risks.
Russia: Likely to seize the chance to weaken US influence by providing Iran with military and diplomatic support, including advanced weapons and UN Security Council vetoes. A prolonged Middle East war could also divert US attention from Ukraine, bolstering Moscow鈥檚 position there.
China: While avoiding direct military involvement, Beijing may continue trading with Iran, undermining US sanctions. The crisis could also serve as a distraction, allowing China to test US resolve in Taiwan or the South China Sea.
Neither of the powers desires a full-scale war, which could disrupt global oil supplies and stability, but both will ensure Iran remains a thorn in Washington鈥檚 side.
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Pakistan and Turkey
Pakistan: The nuclear-armed nation, with ties to both the United States and China, is likely to avoid a direct involvement. However, pressure from Washington for logistical or intelligence support could strain its delicate civilian-military balance and provoke backlash from Islamist factions.
Turkey: As a NATO member with regional ambitions, Turkey may position itself as a mediator, leveraging ties with Iran and the Gulf to broker talks while advancing its own influence.
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US troops and risk of quagmire
A US ground invasion of Iran aimed at a regime change could trap American forces in a protracted insurgency against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with Russia and China funnelling arms to Tehran. Such a scenario could trigger a global economic crisis as oil prices skyrocket.
Pro-Israel lobbying groups, such as AIPAC, wield significant influence on US politics, making the criticism of Israel a risky move for lawmakers. This dynamic, combined with bipartisan support for Israel rooted in historical and religious sentiment, has enabled Netanyahu to drag the United States into a direct conflict with Iran. However, unchecked escalation risks dragging the region into a devastating war.
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Possible endgames
THE conflict could conclude in several ways: negotiated ceasefire: the most plausible but challenging path, requiring international mediation to revive a modified Iran nuclear deal; regional war: if Hezbollah or Iran directly attacks Israel or Gulf states are drawn in, the conflict could spiral uncontrollably; regime change: The collapse of Iran鈥檚 government or Netanyahu鈥檚 ouster could abruptly end the war but at the risk of a greater chaos; great power intervention: Russia or China might pressure Iran to stand down, but only in exchange for concessions elsewhere.
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Ceasefire: fragile gambit
TRUMP鈥橲 ceasefire declaration appears more tactical than sincere, lacking concrete terms or enforcement mechanisms. Key implications include: US credibility: by acting as both aggressor and peacemaker, the United States undermines its mediation role; Iran鈥檚 strategy: Tehran may use the pause to regroup and prepare further proxy attacks; regional scepticism: Russia, China and Iran may suspect the ceasefire as a US ploy to buy time; global reactions: Russia and China could dismiss the move, using the pause to bolster Iran.
The ceasefire鈥檚 success depends on two unlikely factors: binding international mediation and domestic political shifts in the United States or Israel. Without them, the pause will collapse, reigniting a fiercer conflict.
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Region on brink
The Middle East faces one of its most volatile periods in decades. The US-Israel strike on Iran has set in motion a chain of events that will be hard to control. Arab nations, Russia, China, Turkey and Pakistan are all navigating their own interests while the United States risks entanglement in another unwinnable war.
Diplomacy offers the only viable exit, but with Netanyahu bent on crushing Iran, Tehran thirsting for revenge and Trump鈥檚 unpredictable leadership, the path to peace is perilously narrow. If cooler heads do not prevail, the region could descend into a prolonged, devastating conflict with generational consequences.
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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
