HOW often do residents of Dhaka look up at the sky? Our view of the sky is limited due to the presence of high-rise buildings. Buildings with a narrow gap between adjacent buildings, no setback or open space, poor piling, and cheap and brittle materials have covered the capital city. Dhaka is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, home to over 21 million people. Its rapid urbanisation, fuelled by rural-urban migration and economic centralisation, has led to rampant unplanned housing, leaving the city acutely vulnerable to earthquakes. Situated near active tectonic plates, Dhaka faces a seismic threat that could turn its haphazard urban landscape into a catastrophic disaster zone.
Dhaka鈥檚 population has grown exponentially, with an annual growth rate of 3 per cent, which is among the highest globally. The city鈥檚 urbanisation has outpaced infrastructure development, resulting in chaotic land use, overcrowded neighbourhoods and a severe shortage of affordable housing. Dhaka鈥檚 urban planning authority, RAJUK, revealed that 72,000 buildings in the city are at 鈥渉igh risk鈥� of collapse during moderate earthquakes. Additionally, a study by BUET found that more than 60 per cent of Dhaka鈥檚 buildings are non-engineered, meaning they lack formal architectural design, quality materials, or compliance with safety codes. These structures, often built by untrained labourers, dominate areas such as Old Dhaka, Mirpur and Uttara, where narrow streets and crumbling high-rises amplify risks.
Bangladesh lies at the junction of three tectonic plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burmese plates. The Dauki Fault, located 60 kilometres northeast of Dhaka, and the Subduction Zone along the India-Myanmar border pose significant threats. Historical records indicate that a magnitude 7.0鈥�8.5 earthquake struck the region in 1885, and experts warn that a similar event today would be devastating.
The Global Earthquake Model Foundation classifies Dhaka as a 鈥渉igh-risk鈥� city, with a 72 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurring within the next 50 years. The soft alluvial soil beneath the city, typical of deltaic regions, exacerbates seismic shaking. UNDP and CDMP reports estimated that a magnitude 7.5 earthquake could kill 70,000鈥�137,000 people in Dhaka and injure over 300,000, primarily due to building collapses.
How is the unplanned housing happening? The utmost problem is non-compliance with Bangladesh鈥檚 National Building Code, updated in 2020, which mandates earthquake-resistant designs during construction. However, RAJUK estimates that more than 80 per cent of buildings flout these regulations. Corruption in permitting processes and lax enforcement of rules enable illegal constructions. Another issue is the use of substandard materials in construction. Many low-income settlements use brittle materials like low-grade concrete, thin steel rods, and salvaged bricks. A BUET survey found that 45 per cent of buildings in informal areas lack adequate foundations. The substantial problem causing unplanned housing is overcrowding and population density in the capital. According to World Population Review, 2023, parts of Dhaka have population densities exceeding 45,000 people per square kilometre, complicating evacuation efforts. In Old Dhaka, buildings stand shoulder to shoulder, with upper floors often illegally extended.
So, it can be easily estimated if a 7.0-magnitude earthquake happened in Dhaka City, it would destroy 30 per cent of residential buildings, which is more than 2 lakh structures, damage utilities, hospitals, and fire stations, crippling emergency response and triggering fires from ruptured gas lines and electrical shorts, as seen in the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. Economically, the World Bank estimates losses could exceed $12 billion, equivalent to almost 3 per cent of Bangladesh鈥檚 GDP. The garment industry, concentrated in vulnerable high-rises, would face severe disruptions.
The Kashmir earthquake in November 2005, of 7.6 magnitude, killed well over 87 thousand people, many in collapsed non-engineered homes. Similarly, the 2015 Nepal earthquake of 7.8 magnitude destroyed over 600,000 structures, highlighting the risks of informal construction. These events underscore the need for Dhaka to prioritise retrofitting and code enforcement.
Traditional ways of corruption and lack of governance are making this more difficult. Bribes to bypass building inspections are common, perpetuating unsafe practices. Many landlords and builders remain ignorant of seismic risks; they don鈥檛 even bother to think about being aware. Housing, especially the affordable housing shortage, is a global problem now. It is more conspicuous in an overpopulated country like Bangladesh. The economic conditions make residents prioritise cost over safety. The demand for housing is making the landlords more greedy, constructing additional floors beyond permission and extending building areas to get more rent.
What to do to steer clear of this agitation? The most important consideration should be enforcing the building codes by housing authorities. RAJUK must penalise violations. The Dhaka Structure Plan 2016鈥�2035 advocates for decentralised governance to improve oversight. The government and home loan providers could subsidise reinforcements, such as adding shear walls or steel bracing to retrofit high-risk buildings. On the other hand, residents in the residential areas, especially in growing housing areas like Bashundhara, Purbachal New Town, Aftabnagar, Mohammadpur etc, should ensure awareness and preparedness. For example, drills and education campaigns modelled on Japan鈥檚 disaster response systems can save lives. Farsighted but effective urban planning reform of developing satellite cities to relieve pressure on Dhaka and upgrading infrastructure in informal settlements can prevent Dhaka鈥檚 unplanned housing crisis, which is a disaster waiting to happen. Without immediate action, an earthquake could result in unprecedented loss of life and economic paralysis. Policymakers, urban planners and communities must collaborate to enforce regulations, invest in resilient infrastructure and prioritise public safety. Dhaka鈥檚 survival hinges on its readiness today.
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Nayeem Shahriar is principal officer, Bangladesh House Building Finance Corporation.
