RECENTLY, the global geopolitical landscape has undergone rapid changes. The war in Ukraine, followed by the Israel-Palestine conflict and the rise of right-wing governments across various European nations, has significantly altered the world鈥檚 political dynamics. Additionally, the removal of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh has introduced new shifts, especially in regional geopolitics. Furthermore, the recent election of Donald Trump as the new US president has contributed to this evolving scenario. Undoubtedly, the world finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads. In this context, it鈥檚 worth considering the implications of these events for Bangladesh.
Traditionally, the term 鈥榞eopolitics鈥� carries a specific meaning, encompassing both geographical and political dimensions. However, it is essential to acknowledge that economic interests play a crucial role in shaping geopolitical dynamics. In reality, global geopolitical shifts are often driven by the economic priorities of nations. Since geopolitical developments are a reflection of international relations, it is evident that economic factors are an integral part of these interactions. Therefore, limiting geopolitical concerns to geography and politics alone would be misleading. It is equally important to recognise the significance of 鈥榞eo-economics鈥� and the 鈥榩olitical economy鈥� of nations in understanding the broader geopolitical landscape.
Since geo-economics and political economy are integral to geopolitics, the world has increasingly shifted toward what is known as 鈥榚conomic nationalism鈥� in recent years. This approach emphasises economic isolation, with nations prioritising their own economic interests unilaterally. Economic nationalism has two key implications. First, it promotes relatively closed economies, encouraging inward-looking policies and strategies. Second, while it may extend to bilateral economic relations when necessary, it largely avoids multilateral cooperation. While many associate economic nationalism with the ideology of the newly elected US president, its roots can be traced back to the Covid pandemic. When the pandemic struck in 2020, countries focused on protecting their own populations and safeguarding their economic interests 鈥� whether in trade, financial investments, or resource allocation, including aid and grants. As a result, economic nationalism has become a defining feature of the current geopolitical landscape.听
The current geopolitical system is marked by inequality, instability and unsustainability. The world remains deeply unequal across various dimensions 鈥� economic, social, political, and cultural. Economic disparities exist both between nations and within individual countries. In many societies, social exclusion is more of a norm than an exception. On the global stage, political power is concentrated in the hands of developed nations, while within countries, the wealthy and influential dominate decision-making. The poor and marginalised still struggle for real voice and autonomy. These inequalities are not just reflected in outcomes like income and wealth but also in access to opportunities such as education, healthcare, and information and communication technology.听
Additionally, conflicts, violence, and intolerance have made the global order increasingly unstable and complex. Environmental challenges like climate change, deforestation, desertification, salinisation, and biodiversity loss are not only affecting the present generation but are also diminishing opportunities for future ones.
For Bangladesh, these global shifts have significant implications. Economic nationalism, in particular, could impact its external trade, as well as the inflow of aid and foreign investment. As trading partners become more inward-focused, some of the advantages Bangladesh previously enjoyed may no longer be available. The country could face higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers from its trade partners. Similarly, aid and foreign investment flows may decline, which would hinder economic growth, reducing job creation and employment opportunities in the country.
In the evolving geopolitical landscape, multilateralism is gradually losing prominence, while bilateral engagements are gaining preference. This shift means that external aid, particularly grants, will increasingly be negotiated on a country-to-country basis rather than through multilateral platforms. Additionally, political issues such as water-sharing, cross-border migration, and environmental concerns 鈥� often involving multiple nations 鈥� are likely to be addressed bilaterally instead of through regional cooperation.
For Bangladesh, this change could mean dealing with flood management separately with India and Nepal rather than through a joint regional effort. Likewise, there may be no collective regional strategy for addressing the Rohingya crisis or broader environmental challenges that affect multiple countries. As a result, the provision of regional public goods in South Asia may be adversely impacted.
In the emerging geopolitical landscape, disparities in global economic opportunities will become more evident. For Bangladesh, it will be crucial to capitalise on these opportunities. One significant area is the digital revolution, which could create numerous prospects for the country鈥檚 youth and entrepreneurs. However, the key challenge lies in whether Bangladesh is adequately prepared in terms of education, skill development, and human resource capacity. Other nations may advance more rapidly, making it essential for Bangladesh to keep pace.
At the same time, the country must remain vigilant about global risks, which could range from economic recessions to future pandemics. Given varying levels of development, countries will not be equally prepared or equipped to tackle these challenges. To stay competitive and resilient, Bangladesh must engage in proactive planning and strategic foresight.
Fourth, Bangladesh鈥檚 graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category brings additional challenges and opportunities in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Finally, as global institutions adapt to these changes, regional groupings are also becoming increasingly relevant and influential. While the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) exists, it needs to be strengthened and made more effective as a platform for regional negotiations and decision-making. However, Bangladesh should not limit itself to SAARC alone. It must explore opportunities to engage with broader platforms such as the G15, G20, and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Additionally, leveraging South-South cooperation could help Bangladesh maximise the benefits of the shifting global geopolitical order.
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Md Habibul Haque is a lecturer in English, ZH Sikder University of Science and Technology.
