THE election and inauguration of Sri Lanka鈥檚 first leftist president, Anura Dissanayake, have marked the beginning of a new chapter in the country鈥檚 political landscape. There are many questions surrounding how the nation鈥檚 political vision and progress will unfold under his leadership. His role in addressing the country鈥檚 economic crisis, debt, unemployment, and foreign relations has become crucial. His leftist stance and past political ideals necessitate deep analysis to determine the direction the country might take under his presidency.
Under Anura Dissanayake鈥檚 leadership, the coalition of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and the National People鈥檚 Power secured a dramatic victory. Rising from a party with only three seats in the 225-member parliament, he now holds the country鈥檚 highest office. This election reflected the longstanding frustrations of Sri Lanka鈥檚 common people with social and economic discontent.
During his campaign, Dissanayake promised to dismantle Sri Lanka鈥檚 established political system and eradicate corruption. He came into power as a representative of the people against the long-standing political families that had ruled the country through dynastic politics and economic power. The people of Sri Lanka were seeking an alternative to the two traditional parties, and they reached out for this new hope under Dissanayake鈥檚 leadership.
For the first time in Sri Lanka鈥檚 electoral history, the presidential election went into a second count. In the first count, Dissanayake secured 42.31per cent of the vote, while his main opponent, Sajith Premadasa, garnered 32.76 per cent. According to Sri Lanka鈥檚 electoral laws, if no candidate achieves 50 per cent of the vote in the first count, a second count is conducted using a preferential ballot system, where voters can rank their top three preferred candidates. Dissanayake emerged victorious in the second count, marking an unprecedented event in the country鈥檚 political history.
Sri Lanka鈥檚 economy has faced extreme turmoil over the past few years. In 2022, the country defaulted on its debt, foreign reserves were exhausted, and the national debt soared to over $83 billion, with more than half owed to foreign creditors. Inflation surged to nearly 70 per cent, and the economy collapsed. In the wake of this crisis, the people of Sri Lanka expressed their anger, resulting in a popular uprising.
Dissanayake鈥檚 biggest challenge will be to overcome this economic disaster. The current government has accepted a $2.9 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund, with plans to start repaying the debt in 2028. Dissanayake stated during his campaign that he would continue the debt repayment process and renegotiate the country鈥檚 economic policies with the IMF. However, there remains uncertainty over how he will handle this burden and lead the country toward economic recovery.
With only three seats in parliament, Dissanayake鈥檚 JVP cannot independently govern. One of his first tasks will be to call for a general election. If his party and coalition gain more seats in parliament, he will be able to form a stronger government. Currently, there are 222 members from other parties in parliament, raising questions about how much support the new president will receive.
Dissanayake has already declared that he will dissolve the parliament, arguing that the current assembly does not reflect the people鈥檚 aspirations. However, if the opposition parties do not cooperate with him, the country鈥檚 governance may be disrupted, and Sri Lanka could face renewed political instability.
As Sri Lanka鈥檚 new president, how Dissanayake manages international relations, especially with India, is a subject of much discussion. Given Sri Lanka鈥檚 geographical location and close ties with India, his foreign policy will be crucial. Despite being a leftist, Dissanayake will likely aim to maintain good relations with India. However, considering his past anti-India stance and close ties with China, as a political analyst, I do believe that he may pose a challenge for India.
During Sri Lanka鈥檚 economic crisis in 2022, India provided immediate assistance, which the new government under Dissanayake must acknowledge. He cannot ignore India while safeguarding Sri Lanka鈥檚 interests, as India鈥檚 support will be crucial for the country鈥檚 economic recovery and stability.
Although China did not offer significant aid during Sri Lanka鈥檚 economic crisis, the country has long maintained close ties with Sri Lanka鈥檚 leftist leaders. As the new president, Dissanayake鈥檚 ability to balance relations between India and China will be critical for the country鈥檚 future. Sri Lanka鈥檚 strategic location and maritime importance have drawn the attention of both India and China. If Dissanayake leans too much towards China, his relations with India could become strained.
Dissanayake鈥檚 challenge will be to manage this relationship without alienating India, which remains crucial for Sri Lanka鈥檚 economic recovery. His policy towards China is likely to emphasise economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and investment while ensuring Sri Lanka鈥檚 strategic interests aren鈥檛 compromised in the region.
Following Dissanayake鈥檚 election, public expectations have risen significantly. He has pledged to fight corruption and advocate for the marginalised sections of Sri Lankan society. However, there is a stark contrast between the JVP鈥檚 previous armed struggles and the current democratic system of governance. The people now wait to see how well he can fulfil his promises and whether he can lead the country out of its economic collapse.
Although this marks a new chapter in Sri Lankan politics, many uncertainties remain. Dissanayake鈥檚 role in the country鈥檚 economic recovery, debt repayment, and international relations will be of utmost importance. The people of Sri Lanka, along with the international community, are now watching his leadership closely.
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MA Hossain is a political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.
