The national budget for the financial year 2025-26, with an overall outlay of about Tk 7.9 lakh crore, will be announced today amid expectations for prudent fiscal measures in line with the spirit of the July mass uprising that ousted the autocratic Awami League regime in the past year.
The total new budget outlay will be Tk 7,000 crore less than the original size of Tk 7.97 lakh crore announced in June 2024 for the outgoing financial year 2024-25. As the outgoing budget is expected to be revised at Tk 7.44 lakh, the new budget will be higher by Tk 46,000 crore.聽聽聽聽聽聽
Finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed will announce the fiscal measures, aimed at collecting around Tk 5.6 lakh crore in revenue for FY2025-26, on the television and radio live from 3:00pm.
The national annual financial document has been titled as 鈥榖udget for ending discriminations with special focus on the country鈥檚 graduation from the least developed countries鈥� block in the next year and easing the price hike of essentials and expansion of social safety net programme鈥�, according to Finance Division officials.
The first budget under the interim government that assumed office on August 8, 2024 is coming against the backdrop of multiple challenges like inflation, unemployment, rising poverty, low revenue generation, and a slowdown in both public and private investment.
The political uncertainties over the next general elections, changing geo-politics, strained relations with neighbouring India, the Rohingya issue, and climate change will also be challenging for the finance adviser to implement the fiscal measures.
Unlike the finance ministers in the past two financial years, the finance adviser will announce the fiscal聽 targets in a much better macroeconomic situation marked by stability in exchange rate, upward forex reserves, high inflow of remittance, and almost a double-digit export growth.
Besides, the global commodity market is expected to remain favourable for import-dependent Bangladesh while the government has been struggling with the growing subsidy on food, fertiliser, and fuel oils over the past three years.
The World Bank meanwhile in its commodity market outlook released in April said that commodity prices were set to fall sharply in the current calendar year -- by about 12 per cent overall -- as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand.
Besides, commodity prices were projected to decline in the next calendar year -- by another 5 per cent -- hitting a six-year low.
The interim government has already decided to implement only economically viable projects under a smaller annual development programme, worth Tk 2.3 lakh crore, with main focuses on improving the implementation rate and quality of the projects.
A host of innovative measures have also been expected by the finance ministry officials to generate greater revenue and ensure an easy release of the remaining loan tranches under the current $4.7 billion International Monetary Fund loan programme that started in 2023 during the ousted AL regime to support the balance of payment.
The reliance on the other multilateral and bilateral lenders is expected to remain almost the same to meet the budget deficit that is likely to stay around 3.5 per cent of the gross domestic product.
Finance ministry officials said that they were expecting to receive Tk 1.5 lakh crore in loans from external sources while the rest Tk 1.21 lakh crore from domestic sources to make up the deficit.
Going for a smaller ADP in the context of resource shortage and lax capacity, the finance adviser is likely to find few clues to check the growing non-development budget, which will be around Tk 4.8 lakh crore this time.
The interest payment alone for the domestic and external borrowing will take almost one-fourth of the non-development budget.
Moreover, the interim government is considering providing dearness allowance to the public employees, for which some Tk 7,000 crore would be required in the new financial year.
On Sunday, the finance adviser told reporters at his secretariat office that he was expecting to announce an acceptable budget for all.
He also said that they would get more than two weeks for stocktaking on fiscal measures with the aid of newspapers, electronic media, businesses, chamber bodies, associations and academics.
Officials said that the finance bill is expected to be promulgated after it is approved by the advisory council in a meeting on June 22.
