After two decades from today Bangladesh will still continue to substantially depend on fossil fuels for energy, with nearly 10,000 MW of the installed power generation capacity in 2045 directly relying on gas, coal, and liquid oil.
The actual fossil fuel dependence in 2045, however, will be far higher because some of the installed capacities in that year will be disguised as clean energy, a definition that replaced renewable energy in the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan in 2023, introducing technologies yet in infancy but promises to make coal and gas cleaner.
By 2041, the installed power generation capacity in Bangladesh will exceed 60,000 MW, the IEPMP said, stating that 40 per cent of the capacity will be based on clean technology, which energy expert terms as 鈥榞reen washing鈥�.
Bangladesh鈥檚 plan about the fossil fuel reliance reflects the global admiration for development using dirty energy, which led to a 60 per cent increase in carbon-dioxide emissions from energy and industry sectors since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992.
鈥楶erhaps the most interesting aspect of such aggressive fossil fuel expansion is the role foreign investors played behind it,鈥� said Sharif Jamil, head of Waterkeepers Bangladesh, a nongovernmental and non-profit body dedicated to the protection of water bodies and the restoration of water ecosystems in the country.
The foreign investments in Bangladesh included foreign direct investments and investment from multilateral development banks, which came as part of a deep global conspiracy involving fossil fuel lobbies, said Sharif Jamil.
While destroying Bangladesh鈥檚 renewable energy potentials, he said, the investments created a market from where Bangladesh would聽 have no escape for decades.
鈥楾he business model at work is rather brutal where investors profit from destroying economies and environments of third countries,鈥� said Sharif, explaining that the investors mine fossil fuels in third countries and burn them in others for profits.
鈥楤angladesh has turned into a milking cow, always depending on others for energy,鈥� he said.
Over the past two decades, energy experts said, major power and energy sector plans were penned with help from by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Asian Development Bank. Japan provided money and technical support in formulating Bangladesh鈥檚 past four power sector master plans since 2005, each invariably promoting fossil fuel while undermining renewable energy potentials.
The ADB, on the other hand, was involved in energy-related plans involving $2 billion over decades, energy experts said.
Bangladesh鈥檚 current installed power generation capacity of 27,426 MW, overwhelmingly relying on imported fossil fuel, is the outcome of decades of the energy plans. Only about 4 per cent of the installed generation capacity is renewable energy dependent.
The immediate past authoritarian Awami League government, which was notorious for its widespread human rights violation, built the huge fossil fuel fleet with steady investments from its harshest critics, overseeing a sixfold increase in the installed power generation capacity between 2009 and 2024.
The power projects awarded during the AL era almost always avoided competitions and with unequal power purchase deals that drained foreign currency reserve.聽
The one hundred per cent electrification project, which mainly involved an expansion of the national grid with funding from development partners and multilateral development banks, in fact, replaced rooftop solar initiatives in remote areas, which took years to build.聽聽
鈥榃e have gradually become energy colonies of some countries, whose investment interests determined our energy choices, though they meant us no benefits,鈥� said Hasan Mehedi, member secretary, Bangladesh Working Group on Ecology and Development, a platform of green activists.
The 1,496MW coal-based Adani power plant is the largest single power plant to remain in operation through 2045, earning a return six times of its initial investment.
Another 5,000 MW of existing coal capacity will remain in operation through 2050, the time by when many countries promise to achieve net zero emissions.
The coal-fired power plants in Bangladesh include 1,224MW Banshkhali power plant, 307MW Barishal power plant, 1,234MW Rampal power plant, 1,244MW Payra power plant and 1,150MW Matarbari power plant.
Of the existing gas-based power plants, over 2,500 MW will remain in operation through 2048. The power plants include two Meghnaghat power plants of 583 MW and 584 MW capacity, 400MW Ashuganj power plant, 230MW Sylhet power plant, Bibiyana power plants of 400 MW and 383 MW, and 260MW Ghorashal power plant.
The IEPMP projected a very ambitious economic growth between 2019 and 2050, justifying the need to aggressively increase energy consumption to power the growth.
The IEPMP noted that the 鈥榠n-between scenario of growth鈥�, among three projected scenarios, would necessitate about a fivefold gas and coal consumption and a sevenfold oil consumption.聽
A good portion of the gas demand will be met through the import of liquefied natural gas.
The IEPMP plans to increase coal consumption through the 2030s before introducing ammonia-cofiring to curtail greenhouse gas emissions in coal power plants.
Gas-fired power plants, on the other hand, will witness hydrogen co-firing in 2037, said鈥� the IEPMP.
The co-firings will take years to eventually replace the fossil fuel completely, obviously depending on the economy鈥檚 capacity to afford these highly expensive technologies, energy experts said.
The co-firings in most cases are not clean and emit carbon.聽
The IEMPM also promotes carbon capture and storage technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, though experts held it among false solutions, invented to linger coal consumption.聽聽
According to a Center for Policy Dialogue analysis of the IEPMP, renewable energy would not constitute even half of the clean energy target by 2041, which would be 40 per cent of the 61,000MW installed power generation capacity.
Clean energy in the IEPMP accounts for 18 per cent of the installed generation capacity to be achieved in 2030. Less than 6 per cent or 1,726 MW will come from renewable energy. The installed power generation capacity in 2030 will be 40,000 MW.
By 2050, Bangladesh installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 90,000 MW.
