Economists have observed that the proposed national budget for the 2025–26 financial year lacks the structural depth needed to address Bangladesh’s long-standing economic challenges.
While the budget attempts to reflect sincerity and pragmatism, they say, it ultimately falls short of offering the reforms required to ensure sustainable development.
Finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed on Monday announced the FY26 national budget worth Tk 7,89,999 crore.
Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling, acknowledged that the finance adviser presented the budget with a realistic tone and recognised major economic concerns such as inflation, unemployment, stagnant private investment and rising inequality.
He appreciated the effort to position the budget as a tool for economic restructuring.
However, Selim said that the budget largely followed the traditional framework, offering limited changes in core policies and avoiding bold reform steps.
Despite demands for addressing inequality and youth unemployment, especially after the student-led mass uprising that ousted the past regime in mid-2024, there is no significant increase in allocations for education, health, or social protection in the budget, he said.
He also criticised the absence of institutional reforms and effective accountability mechanisms, which weakens the capacity for proper implementation.
Without a clear road map for improving governance, coordination and investment confidence, the economist warned that the budget risks were becoming another symbolic annual exercise. In a politically uncertain environment, he stressed the need for equal focus on economic stability and public trust.
M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of the Policy Exchange Bangladesh, noted that the government’s decision to keep the overall budget size and the annual development programme relatively smaller was a prudent move under the current macroeconomic constraints. He said that this cautious approach could help maintain fiscal discipline.
However, the economist said that while the budget included some measures to support employment and investment, it fell short of what was required to address the country’s economic needs.
The proposed budget lacks strong signals and allocations for key reform initiatives that are crucial for boosting investor confidence, he said.
Reaz also questioned the feasibility of the ambitious revenue collection target (Tk 5.64 lakh crore), calling it unrealistic, given Bangladesh’s current fiscal capacity.
He added that the 6.5 per cent inflation target would be difficult to achieve due to persistent domestic price pressures, despite recent global trends of falling oil and dollar prices.
Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, echoed similar concerns. He warned that the revenue target might miss the mark by over Tk 1 lakh crore, forcing the government to either slash spending or increase borrowing to manage the deficit.
The economist said that the expenditure structure remained largely unchanged from previous years.
Still, he offered cautious optimism that the GDP growth target of 5.5 per cent could be achievable if the law and order situation improves and the investment climate holds steady.
Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, emphasised that the government should have raised the tax-free income threshold in the light of the persistent high inflation.
He termed the modest tax-gross domestic product ratio target of 10 per cent by 2035 disappointing.
To boost revenue collection, he urged a greater use of technology, expansion of the tax base and effective institutional reforms.
