Collusive behavior, capacity deficit and coordination failure have been identified as the main reason for lack of credible data on key socio-economic indicators during the Awami League regime ousted on August 5 amid a student-people uprising.
Impacts of collusive behavior of politicians and public servants to distort data have been evident in all key metrics such as gross domestic product, inflation, labour force and poverty.
The other two Cs 鈥撯�� capacity deficit and coordination failure 鈥撯�� have also led to the systemic compromise of data integrity or data-related disarray in the country over the years, according to the White Paper on the State of Bangladesh Economy.
AL policymakers hardly paid attention to the call for maintaining proper methods in calculating data through out its unbroken tenure between January 2009 and August 2024, the white paper said.
Experts and economists found it difficult to present an objective state of economy and development in absence of reliable data.
Indicating various macroeconomic data, Policy Exchange Bangladesh chairman Masroor Reaz said that they were getting many data which were not available or delayed during the AL regime.
He hoped that the availability of data in the most reliable form would increase in the coming days.
When official statistics on key metrics such as the GDP, inflation, private investment or employment are unreliable, a disconnect between economic realities and policy responses is created, said the white paper.聽聽
Appointed on August 29, a 12-member committee headed by Centre for Policy Dialogue distinguished fellow and economist Debapriya Bhattacharya submitted the white paper to the chief adviser Muhammad Yunus on December 1.
The issue of reliable data has also been highlighted in at least eight of the 23 chapters of the white paper aiming to portray the mismanagements and irregularities of the AL regime.
GDP growth rate has been the centre of attention because of apparent disjuncture with other key indicators, including private sector credit, revenue mobilisation, import payments for capital machines, energy consumption, export receipts and employment generation.
Focusing on the issue, the white paper said that in the post-2013 period, the political policymakers took a special interest in GDP figures and surely made strong influences.聽
A collusive group in the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics allegedly emerged to ensure that the economic performance of the country was maintained against all odds, be it only on paper, said the white paper.聽聽
During the post-2019 period, this collusive group was largely maintaining the act. Data producers might have felt pressured to present an overly optimistic view of development characterised by accelerated economic growth, especially since past estimates were repeatedly manipulated, added the white paper.
It highlighted the collusive behavior on inflation, one of the most talked about issues over the past two years.
The unusual delay and reluctance to release the Consumer Price Index in August 2022 and only 8.4 per cent inflation for gross rent, fuel and lighting components against the price hike of fuel oil by Tk 50 with a potential domino effect pushing up prices of food, transport and utilities, among others it stated.聽
The distrust of inflation data increased as the BBS made a revision in estimating inflation with an expanded commodity basket having 700 more items with the latest rebasing of 2021-22 CPI, creating an opportunity for the enumerators to use arbitrary judgements, said the white paper.聽
Many commodities included in the new estimation method are largely unavailable at many market points of the country.
Former World Bank Dhaka office chief economist Zahid Hussain, also a writer of the white paper preparation committee, said that suppression of inflation data below double digits in the past two years was linked to collusive behavior.
Now the BSS seems to be providing actual data, he said, calculating that the double-digit inflation prevailed in August, October and November out of four months of the interim government completed on December 8.聽聽聽聽
The white paper identified that discrepancies in standards and definitions had enabled the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics to report an inflated employment rate to appease the regime regarding the overall labour force.
Poverty rates have been reduced to 18.7 per cent in 2022 from 26.5 per cent in 2016, but the poverty reduction rate does not go in parallel with a recent BBS study on Food Security Statistics 2023 that revealed that about 22 per cent of the households perceived themselves as moderate to severe food insecure.聽
The sharp decline in extreme poverty surely raised the eyebrows of analysts, said the white paper.
Recognising that political influences and priorities often guide statistical manipulations is crucial. This underscores the importance of accurate data as the backbone of effective policy making, the white paper said.
Manipulated data can lead to devastating consequences, making the need for reliable data even more urgent, it added.
